Monday, January 26, 2004

Bush Discovers Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument

"All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses, his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind." Marx and Engels, The C*****t Manifesto. Or not. At least in this cartoon by Tom Tomorrow. Nick's simulation argument is basically that if intelligence survives into the future, given transhumanist expectations about the inexorable and possibly rapid conversion of enormous amounts of the universe into a computing media, there will eventually be computers capable of running extremely detailed simulations of human existence. Perhaps simulations of the actual events of human history which may or may not have contributed to the creation of the superminds, or just simulations of made up intelligent life which might every once in a while be human beings on Earth. In any case, if we extrapolate the tens of billions of years in which these vast superminds will have to entertain themselves in, the simulation argument contends that at least some of them will entertain themselves by running sims of human experience. Those sims will be capable of being so detailed that their simulated nature is beyond our ability to detect.

Since there can only have been one "actual" human existence on Earth, while we can supposedly assume multiple simulations of human existence on Earth somewhere in the universe, over the next tens of billions of years, then we are most likely living in a simulation. Personally, I try to avoid conspiracy theories and profound looking-glass epistemological puzzles - I prefer to focus on fighting the Machine, live, love and think deep thoughts, even if its just to entertain the Tron-master. Take the blue pill and fight the Matrix anyhow. I think the simulation argument, like gnostic ideas about the illusory nature of reality that have cropped up repeatedly throughout history, tend to lead to irrational and self-destructive behavior, as Tom suggests. Even if they are right.

Anyway, Robin Hanson argues that the best way to keep your simulation going is to remain entertaining. Do you think the superminds would be more entertained by Truman before or after he realizes its all just a a TV show? I think Truman should just have quit his fake job, robbed the bank, lived the high life, and contacted the Screen Actors Guild and sued for back wages and time off.