The Fermi Paradox—if there’s other intelligent life in the galaxy, given how long the galaxy’s been here, how come we haven’t seen any indication of it?—is an important puzzle for those of us who like to think ahead. Setting aside the mystical (we’re all that was created by a higher being) and fundamentally unprovable (we’re all living in a simulation), we’re left with two unpalatable options: we’re the first intelligent species to arise; or no civilization ever makes it long enough.
Feedback, Tipping Points, and Hard Choices
by Jamais CascioI have one thing to say: depopulation is not a global warming strategy.
Nick Bostrom: “Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing.”
by George DvorskyTranshumanist philosopher (and IEET Chair) Nick Bostrom desperately hopes that we never find signs of extraterrestrial life—advanced or otherwise. Why? Because he understands the Fermi Paradox.
Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing
by Nick BostromIf we are alone it may be evidence that we have sneaked past the huge hurdles in the way of any species becoming an intelligent star-faring civilization. Then again, we could still be extinguished at any moment.
Geoengineering: Go slow! Carbon reduction: Hurry!
by Mike TrederWe need a crash development program for wind, solar, tidal, wave, geothermal - and possibly nuclear - energy infrastructures. Geo-engineering is too risky except as an absolute last resort.
The Earth Will Be Just Fine, Thank You
by Jamais CascioThe grand myth of environmentalism is that it’s all about saving the Earth. It’s not. The Earth will be just fine. Environmentalism is all about saving ourselves.
Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats
by J. HughesAbstract: Popular discussion of utopian possibilities and apocalyptic risks from new technologies is sometimes dismissed as ungrounded millennial hysteria. In this essay I reflect on the various types of historic, pancultural millennialism. I then suggest how contemporary forms of secular techno-utopian and techno-apocalyptic discourse reflect these millennialist types and their characteristic biases to over- or under-estimate catastrophic risks, and adopt fatalistic or inappropriate stances toward risk reduction. Then I suggest that awareness of these characteristic millennialist cognitive biases help us separate grounded assessments of catastrophic risks from their attendant psycho-cultural baggage. By carefully parsing our hopes and fears about the future from the characteristic dysfunctions of millennialism we can tap millennialism’s energy without being led astray by it. (Download the PDF)
Civilization’s Demise
by Mike TrederOur global civilization is very fragile, and could crumble under the impact of catastrophic events. Wise use of emerging technologies could make our bodies, our communities and our civilization more resilient, or more vulnerable to collapse.
The Big Picture: Resource Collapse
by Jamais CascioTruism #1: Human society’s continued existence depends on the sustained flows of a variety of natural resources.
Truism #2: What that set of natural resources comprises can change over time.
Why not do it all?
by Mike TrederWhy not start erecting wind farms wherever they make sense? Why not go forward immediately with projects to tap energy from the tides, from the waves, and perhaps even from deep geothermal sources? Why not set up large community solar collectors in every city, town, and village?
Peak Oil vs. Global Warming
by Jamais CascioCould we avoid the worst ravages of global warming because we run out of oil?
Super-Empowered Hopeful Individuals
by Jamais CascioMost discussions of the benefits of technologies like molecular manufacturing tend to focus either on broad social advances (engineered by helpful governments, NGOs, or businesses) or individual desires that transformative technologies may be able to satisfy. These are surely useful ways of thinking about a nanotech-enabled world. But what if this model misses another category, one that may be less noticeable precisely because we pay so much attention to its opposite?
Site and Mailing List Outage
Hopefully some of you noticed that the IEET website was down for three days, and that our email lists are still down. That is because the servers in London that host the IEET, the Journal of Evolution and Technology, the World Transhumanist Association and a variety of other like-minded groups was brought down by a hack attack last week. The servers have now been rebuilt, but our email list is still inexplicably down. We’re working on it, and hopefully will have it fixed shortly. We have no idea whether the attack was ideologically motivated or not.
Battlebots with a Conscience?
by Mike TrederA new meme is quietly developing about the danger of ‘killer robots’.
Seven ways to control the Galaxy with self-replicating probes
by George DvorskySo, you want to take over the Galaxy. A good career move. Ultimately, you’re hoping to communicate with extraterrestrials, colonize entire sets of star clusters, and eventually lord it over the entire Milky Way.
Facing the Quasi-Autonomous Robot Monsters Under The Bed
by Anne Corwin“Autonomous robots” have some people very spooked. But what does it mean to be an autonomous, decision-making entity in the first place?
None Dare Call Them Catastrophes: Why We Underestimate Apocalypse
by Milan ĆirkovićIt is strangely underappreciated that when it comes to global catastrophic or existential risks the future cannot resemble the past.
How to solve global warming conflict
by Marshall BrainThe only word that can be applied to a recently-revealed military report is “depressing”: Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
Who will win the nano race?
by Mike TrederBuilding powerfully advanced products quickly, easily, cheaply, and in huge numbers — that’s the disruptive impact of molecular manufacturing. When a new technology has the potential to radically transform national and global economies, geopolitical relations, and even human social structures, we’d better learn as much about it as we can. A critically important question to answer is who. Which nation, group, corporation, or consortium is most likely to achieve the “holy grail” of nanotechnology first?
The Renewable Proliferation Treaty
by Jamais CascioThe Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), originally promulgated in 1968 and entering into force in 1970, has three key provisions: that nuclear weapon-free signatory states refrain from developing nuclear weapons; that signatory states with nuclear weapons work to disarm; and that signatory states remain free to develop nuclear energy technologies.
Scenes from Six Degrees
Jamais was on National Geographic TV talking about cheeseburgers and how we can fix the planet. Check it out!
The Big Picture: Climate Chaos
by Jamais CascioThermal Inertia. Get used to that term, as it drives the relationship between climate disruption and human civilization, now and over the next twenty years. Its meaning is simple: even if we were to stop all greenhouse gas emissions immediately, right this very second, we’d still see continued warming and disruption for the next two or three decades.
CRN at Five Years Old
by Mike TrederIEET Fellow Mike Treder, Executive Director of IEET ally the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, reflects on CRN’s first five years.
The Big Future
by Jamais CascioYou don’t have to believe in incipient singularities to recognize that 2028—just twenty years from now—will bear very little resemblance to 2008.
Emerging Economies and U.S. Hegemony
by Mike TrederDoes the decline of U.S. geopolitical hegemony make multilateral global governance less likely or more likely?
Battlefield Earth
by Jamais CascioIt’s only a matter of time before the world’s militaries learn to wield geo-engineering of the climate as a weapon.
Underfunding of US Basic Science Slowing Progress
by Mike TrederBush’s budget for scientific research is disappointing again in 2008. For the fifth year in a row funding for the National Institutes of Health will fail to keep up with inflation.
Malware for Materials
by Jamais CascioThe smart environment era is just about upon us, and I’m looking forward to seeing what happens when our previously “dumb” surroundings become embedded with Internet-connected intelligence.
Prototyping the Participatory Panopticon
by Jamais CascioWaaaaaay back in the dark days of early 2006, I gave a little talk at the TED conference on the idea of an “Earth Witness” program, with sensing devices built into mobile phones to allow for collaborative environmental science.
CRN’s Nanotechnology Scenarios Project
by Mike TrederThe Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, under the direction of Mike Treder and Jamais Cascio, worked with two dozen technology futurists to develop eight scenarios imagining the future of nanotechnology.
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