Singularities Enough, and Time

A few people have asked me what I thought of Karl Schroeder’s recent article at Worldchanging, “No Time for the Singularity.”

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Posted by  on  06/30  at  11:01 PM

We can and are solving the current energy and environmental crisis with technology already available. For example, weak nanotech can manfacture PV whose installed cost yields an ROI greater than bonds or the average stock portfolio gains. I should also note, those paths are not mutually exclusive.

Posted by  on  07/03  at  10:32 AM

"Karl argues that we can’t count on super-intelligent AIs to save us from environmental disaster, since by the time they’re possible (assuming that they’re possible), things will have gotten so bad that they won’t matter" - I doubt that there is any environmental scenario that is beyond the ability of a true "superintelligence" to sort out - I suspect Karl Schroeder is simply underestimating what is possible with enough intelligence. I tend to think of the outcome of an AI hard takeoff as an agent who can arbitrarily (subject to the laws of physics) re-arrange the atoms of the solar system. This would include the task of reducing the concentration of CO_2 in the atmosphere, for example. But I would agree that we cannot *count* on a superintelligent AI or other form of superintelligence solving our problems: we have no really good way of predicting when such an advance will happen. Most intelligent people who have thought about the situation carefully tend conclude that a superintelligence of some form is likely by 2100.

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