It was said that it takes at least a decade to figure out the effects of a major war. It probably takes a lot longer. It took a few decades to figure out that Britain had lost its empire by winning World War II and only now are we beginning to see that Germany was not defeated after all.
BTW, the Surge was a shell game: forces were transfered from Afghanistan to enable the Surge—in other words Iraq was to some degree ‘stabilized’ by re-unstabilizing Afghanistan. The old switcheroo. And I’m concerned Mittens Romney will be elected this November and do something asinine such as invade Syria in play-acting Reagan or whatever the GOP game is.
So let’s face it: war has diminished and will continue to do so; but thirty years from now—what used to be termed a generation—wars will still exist, armies will still be mobilized, police will still be on the streets. Etc.