Revising the Myth of Longevity

A contrarian point of view, asserting that “life expectancy might actually start to decline for the first time in centuries,” with numerous explanations.

An important question which was not addressed in this article is whether we can determine which scenario (i.e., shorter or longer lifespans) is more likely to occur. On average, people may have shorter lifespans and be less healthy only if cures or at least significant progress toward cures for most or all age-related diseases will not develop within the next 40 years and if those cures will not be affordable to most people after they’re developed. The opposite scenario could also easily happen given the progress in fields such as regenerative medicine and the large productivity gains that may occur to offset a larger aging population.

The idea that health care is going to dramatically increase as people get older is only true if we continue to use aggressive, ineffective and expensive treatments at the end of life. If we allowed for the reality that, for the moment, people are inevitably going to die, we would stop trying to stretch out their lives in misery and instead plan for a comfortable and peaceful transition to whatever comes next.  Most of the most expensive medicine does not extend life, but prolongs the process of dying.

Resolving this one issue would put huge amounts of money back into health care.

I think that once a person realizes that genetics determines less then 30% of life span, a greater emphasis on optimizing health will (continue) to emerge. 

As the enablers of extended healthy lifespans are increasing in power - many exponentially (biotech / nanotech / medical devices / DIY socially shared medicine, etc etc), maximum healthy (not feable) life spans will very like increase - possibly dramatically.

Once this starts to show up, I expect cultural change around desirability of long life.  The “news” on this will show up in animal studies (i.e. doubling mice lifespan).

Add your comment here: