Kudos to the IEET’s Nick Bostrom for having his Simulation Argument (SA) featured in the New York Times.
The SA essentially states that, given the potential for posthumans to create a vast number of ancestor simulations, we should probabilistically conclude that we are in a simulation rather than the deepest reality.
Most people give a little chuckle when they hear this argument for the first time. I’ve explained it to enough people now that I’ve come to expect it. The chuckle doesn’t come about on account of the absurdity of the suggestion, it’s more a chuckle of logical acknowledgment—a reaction to the realization that it may actually be true.
But this is no laughing matter; there are disturbing implications to the SA. We appear to be damned if we’re in a simulation, and damned if we’re not.
Dammit, we’re in a simulation!
If we were ever to prove that we exist inside a simulation, it would be proof that the transhumanist assumption is correct—that the transition from a human to a posthuman condition is in fact possible. But that will be of little solace to us measly sims! The simulation—er, our world—could be shut down at any time. Or, the variables that make up our modal reality could be altered in undesirable ways (e.g. our world could be turned into a Hell realm).
Also, should we reside in a simulation, we have to pretty much assume that our digital benefactors are rather indifferent to our plight. Based on the amount of suffering going on around here we should probably assume a gnostic religious sensibility. These gods are not our allies; they may have created us, but they are not looking out for our best interests.
Dammit, we’re not in a simulation!
Now, on the other side of the virtual coin, should we ever prove that we are not in a simulation, that would also be bad. It would be potential evidence that the transition to a posthuman condition may not be possible.
This problem is similar to the Fermi Paradox and the possible resolution that we are the first intelligent civilization to emerge in the Galaxy. This is a hard pill to swallow based on the extreme odds.
Similarly, we should be disturbed that we are not in a simulation because it may imply that we don’t have a very bright future—that civilizations destroy themselves before developing the capacity to create simulations. Otherwise, we have to take on a exceptionally optimistic frame and assume that we’ll survive the Singularity and be that special first civilization that spawns simulations. Again, a probabilistically unsatisfactory proposition.
Of course, advanced civilizations may not create simulations on this scale. The Fermi Paradox offers yet another example as to why this is a problematic suggestion. Given the technological potential to colonize the Galaxy, why haven’t advanced civilizations done so? Similarly, why wouldn’t advanced civilizations create simulations given the technological capacity to do so?
The NYT article goes over a number of these issues and Bostrom provides some possible solutions. Ultimately, however, the answers are unsatisfactory.
The Simulation Argument solves the Fermi Paradox! Maybe...
Perhaps the answer to the Fermi Paradox is that we are in a simulation. It would certainly explain the Great Silence. Why bother simulating extraterrestrials? Maybe that’s the point of the simulation—to study how a civilization advances without any outside intervention.
Or maybe the Fermi Paradox exists because all civilizations are busy working on their simulations....
Or perhaps.....ah, forget it. My brain (which is probably sitting in a vat somewhere) hurts.
George Dvorsky serves on the Board of Directors for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. George is the Director of Operations for Commune Media, an advertising and marketing firm that specializes in marketing science. George produces
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