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IEET > Life > Innovation > Vision > Futurism > Contributors > Dick Pelletier

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Driverless Cars Promise Huge Impact in Our Everyday Lives


Dick Pelletier
Dick Pelletier
Positive Futurist

Posted: May 19, 2012

Imagine going to the grocery store in 25 years in your sleek new auto-drive car: You hop in, voice the destination and off you go. The quiet, electric-powered vehicle drops you off at the supermarket entrance, then auto-parks itself while you shop. As you exit the store, your car drives to the entrance, picks you up and returns home. You marvel at this incredible car that can also run errands without you on board.

Despite world car population approaching a billion, the economy has devastated the auto industry. To revive their failing businesses and address growing concerns over environmental damages and rising auto accidents, car makers are going electric and adding more safety features.

Experts predict that by 2020, 4 million electric vehicles will be on the road, and by 2050, nearly all cars will run on electricity, ending world dependency on gasoline.

And high-tech amenities are in demand. Today, many new vehicles sold in the U.S. boast Electronic Stability Control; a system that enables drivers to control vehicles in extreme dangerous conditions.

Other features include wireless Bluetooth Internet connections that offer drivers and passengers hands-free voice communications; models that automatically brake when a collision is eminent; and some with abilities to parallel park themselves, remotely unlock doors, disable stolen cars, and dial 911 in a crises.

In addition, tomorrow’s electric vehicles will be far different from today’s versions that require frequent battery recharge stops. Future sensors imbedded in highways and streets will enable coils inside electric cars to charge batteries continuously, eliminating recharging breaks.

At the forefront of this revolution, Google recently modified a Toyota with cameras, radar and lasers that allow it to drive without human assistance. This futuristic concept includes a scanning sensor mounted atop the car and a GPS system that identifies the vehicle’s location. Google received a license for this concept car, as Nevada became the first state in the nation to register auto-drive cars. see video here.

As computers and sensors become highly sophisticated, cars will handle more and more of the boring work of driving. By 2020, they will control all of it. When cars know where they are, where they need to go, and can automatically steer, brake and accelerate, some ask, what’s left for humans to do? The answer: relax, browse the net, watch TV, or enjoy the scenery.

Two new ideas for our self-driving wonders include 1) replacing the motor with four electric motors positioned in each wheel, which improves traction and provides more storage space by eliminating the driveshaft; and 2) dent-proof nanomaterials that pop back into original shape after a fender-bender.

Some positive thinkers envision cars that can even change texture and color with voice command (think KITT on NBC’s Knight Rider.

Vehicles of tomorrow will be a little smaller, but with futuristic designs, as you can see in the following links: General Motors EN-V; MIT Hiriko Folding Car; Scion iQ EV; Car2Go.

However, some ask; how about legality, what kind of financial issues might driverless cars cause? Most laws assume a human is behind the wheel; if there’s a mishap, whom do you sue?

Clearly, this presents serious challenges, but advocates say there’s plenty of time to resolve these issues, as most experts do not predict driverless vehicles will be accepted by the average consumer until late-2020s or 2030s. By then, enhanced human intelligence might easily find solutions to this problem.

Most barriers to driverless cars are social rather than technical. Many people feel uneasy relinquishing control to a computer, and there are some, who truly enjoy ‘putting the pedal to the metal’.

In the beginning, most cars will be dual-purpose; manually drivable and computer controlled; but as society becomes more aware of the safety and convenience of owning cars that drive themselves, these auto-drive wonders will capture the public’s heart. Welcome to the future of driverless cars.


Dick Pelletier is a weekly columnist who writes about future science and technologies for numerous publications. He's also appeared on various TV shows, and he blogs at Positive Futurist.
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COMMENTS


“Imagine going to the grocery store in 25 years in YOUR sleek new auto-drive car”

Why own a car at all? With a fleet of independent cars I can imagine it is cheaper to rent a car by the minute then owning a vehicle that is idle most of the time.
Those ‘sharecars’ can pick you up anywhere in a five minute notice, and after dropping you off at your destination (reminding you not to forget your bag or groceries you left in the trunk) it goes its own merry way.
In densely populated aereas this can replace human driven cabs and most forms of public transport.





“Someone order a Johnny Cab?”





Yes, owning a car is becoming less popular.

Many Generation ‘Y’, or Millennials (those born 1981-1995), which is expected to represent 40% of the auto market in the coming decade, believe that car ownership is not ‘cool’.

According to Frost & Sullivan analyst Nicolas Meilhan, Gen-Y-ers are moving from car ownership to renting or sharing. The business model of the future is to rent or share.

Will this trend continue with Generation Z, or Zogs, 1996-2009; and Generation A, or Alpha, 2010-2025? Time will tell as we venture further into what promises to become an amazing future.





Electric cars already have the range necessary for average city driving. The problem is long distance driving, which could be solved by rebuilding the rail system to run on electricity and have the rented car available at the other end.





@Pastor_Alex

By the time driverless cars begin proliferating our streets and highways, which some experts predict will happen by late 2020s or early 2030s, technologies should be in place that eliminate the need for recharging. That’s the hope, anyway.





That is true Dick, but like a lot of things we are waiting future adaptations for things that we could implement now. It is possible for us to simply ban internal combustion engines from the city cores. We could do it tomorrow and fully implement it in two years without any major change in our infrastructure. We don’t and won’t because people have this idea that owning a car is a right, and that no one can tell them what kind of car to own. As ownership becomes less desirable the small, urban electrics will proliferate.





Yes, Pastor_Alex; I think you are correct in regards to electric cars, but drivereless vehicles may not become popular for another 20-25 years or so.

I think auto-drive cars will really be cool. I can hardly wait to get a car that can run errands for me, without me needing to be on board.





Driverless cars will indeed be cool, but more than that they will reduce the senseless carnage of our roads. I see them being introduced in pieces, a parking feature here, a way of talking to other cars to reduce traffic jams there, until we wake up and realize that we are drinking coffee on the way to work instead of driving.





And by the time driverless vehicles take over the number one position in our personal transportation world, other technologies will advance also.

Some experts predict that household robots will one day become the most important family acquisition, and with molecular nanotechnology maturing, personal nanofactories could appear in most homes, providing the opportunity to acquire things like home robots and driverless cars at little or no cost.

Will the future unfold in this positive manner? I think that it will!





Dick,

You mention a time frames twice:

By 2020, they will control all of it.

the second

most experts do not predict driverless vehicles will be accepted by the average consumer until late-2020s or 2030s.

I’m wondering how you differentiate?  30% of people are interested in autonomous vehicles right NOW.  Even with the limitations of current technology i.e. super cruise etc next year will see the release of almost 10 cars adopting many of the technologies.  And it’s 2013 model year.

From what I’ve read, mainstream adoption seems to be trending toward ~2020.

Thanks,

Ethan





Ethan, this is a great point and your reasoning makes a lot of sense, and I hope that society accepts this revolution quickly.

However, trusting one’s life to a computer may not happen easily. Especially when considering that most early models are expected to be ‘hybrids’, which would allow humans to take control. I believe that it may take Americans a decade or so before acceptance becomes mainstream.

But if Kurzweil is right and information technologies advance exponentially, perhaps the public will accept these auto-drive wonders at a faster clip. Time will tell.





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