US Updates Apocalypse Preparedness Plans, UK Catalogs Catastrophic Risks, and SF is Called Upon to Imagine the Security Future
On May 9, President Bush issued a “National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive” empowering the National Continuity Coordinator to update the National Continuity Plan to maintain contunity of the U.S. government in the event of a catastrophic event. Previous administrations’ plans had focused on a nuclear attack, while this one includes more focus on terrorist attacks, in particular a nuclear terrorist attack on Washington D.C. (Most Americans don’t believe we are even prepared for natural disasters such as hurricanes.)
One of the groups advising the Department of Homeland Security on security preparedness is a gathering of science fiction writers, dubbed “Sigma” and with the slogan “Science Fiction in the National Interest.” The group, which includes Greg Bear, Jerry Pournelle, and Larry Niven, were first gathered in the 1990s to do scenario development for post-nuclear recovery, and are now advising on terrorism scenarios.
The group would do well to read the latest Sf/techno-thriller, Breakpoint, by former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke. The novel projects the near-future of supersoldiers, accelerating AI and brain-computer interfaces, genetic enhancement, and an alliance of Green and Christian paramilitary Luddites determined to stop underground transhumanist groups by blowing up labs and computer hubs.
If you are curious about the patterns of terrorist attacks around the world you can turn to the open source, searchable Global Terrorism Database (GTD) which includes the location, type and other 120 other variables on 80,000 terrorist events around the world since 1970 (currently updated through 2004). The GTD is maintained by a group at the University of Maryland and based on a database collected by the Pinkerton Global Intelligence Services.
While the EU tries to respond to Russia’s alleged cyberwarfare against Estonia, a U.S. Defense Department report accused the Chinese government of preparing offensive cyberwarfare capabilities.
In January the the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), part of the UK Ministry of Defense, released its DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programmme report with a very nice summary of possible future “Strategic Shocks” including:
- Mega-Volcanic or Seismic Event
- Global Pandemic
- Abrupt Climate Change, including from a Methane Catastrophe (runaway feedback between global warming and release of methane deposits), or Thermo-Haline Disturbance (reversal of the Atlantic ocean current, and cooling of Europe)
- Globalized Economic Collapse
- Revolution in the Supply of Energy
- Collapse of Fish Stocks
- the collapse of Africa or China
- Development of Genetic Treatments to Prevent the Effects of Ageing, and conflict between New and Old Humans (emergence of gap between the enhanced/non-enhanced)
- The global proletarianized middle classes, or resentful youth burdened with growing Baby Boomer retiree dependents, becoming a base for revolutionary organizations
- Terrorist Coalition of the Willing
- Catastrophic Space System Damage (such as from solar flares)
- Broadcasts to the Brain (through networked brain chips)
- and the development or use of new weapons, such as electromagnetic pulses and neutron weapons
How to prepare and defend against bioterrorism was also much in the news the last few weeks. After Rudy Rucker mused in MSNBC about the benefits and potential risks of synthetic biology, a team in Germany published a paper in Cell on their success in altering the genome of a bacterium (listeriosis) to permit it attack new species (mice). Critics questioned the wisdom of the journal in publishing the paper, which suggests that genetically engineered bioterrorism is now much easier. In order to prepare policy on these threats the European Union has launched SYNBIOSAFE, a project to research the “Safety and Ethical Aspects of Synthetic Biology.”
Synthetic biology also provides potential solutions to bioterrorism however, as the New York Times elaborated in a story on the biotech firm Genocea, which has isolated the proteins which stimulate immune responses. These can then be used to speed the creation of new vaccines, and even create a super-vaccine that boosts immune preparedness for a wide spectrum of pathogens. These would also be extremely useful, of course, in the developing world in order to stem the emergence of novel pandemics.
If the predictions of the group Christian Aid, of one billion people being displaced by climate change by 2050, are borne out new vaccines will probably be a moot point however (full report here, video here).
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