The barriers to a successful molecular manufacturing development project may already be surprisingly low. The challenge is mainly engineering, not unpredictable scientific breakthroughs. The primary technical barriers are the lack of a detailed design and the need for a better understanding of the required laboratory techniques. Both of these problems should be solvable with sufficient resources, and significant progress is steadily being made.
Large-scale nanotech manufacturing depends on
programmable chemical fabrication of structures, followed by
assembly of these structures to make larger systems. This
has been studied intensively on a theoretical level.
Assuming the theory works -- and no one has discovered a
problem with it yet -- exponential general-purpose molecular
manufacturing appears to be inevitable. It might be become a
reality by 2010, likely will by 2015, and almost certainly
will by 2020.
Recent research
[PDF] has found that the design of a self-fabricating system
might be simpler than a desktop computer's CPU. An
automated, self-contained factory could build lifesaving
medical robots -- or untraceable weapons of mass
destruction. For less than a million dollars, it could build
networked computers for everyone in the world -- and for
another million, networked cameras so governments can watch
our every move. These factories will create trillions of
dollars of abundance -- and a vicious scramble to own it.
Cheap rapid prototyping will enable rapid invention of
wondrous products -- and weapons development fast enough to
destabilize any arms race.
Along with sizable benefits, the technology brings
serious challenges.
Analysis by CRN
shows that numerous severe problems could spiral out of
control before today's existing institutions would have time
to react. Reactive development and application of molecular
manufacturing policy almost certainly will be insufficient.
Attempts to control these problems may lead to abusive
restrictions, or create a black market that would be very
risky and almost impossible to stop; small nanofactories
will be very easy to smuggle, and fully dangerous. Efforts
to preempt malicious or unauthorized use of the technology
could result in threats to civil liberties from constant
intrusive surveillance.
Without
advance planning
-- without wise and well-informed policy -- we will walk
blindly off a cliff. Bad policy will lead to mushrooming
problems, which will inspire more bad policy. In the
struggle between anarchy and oppression, the one sure loser
will be "we the people."
Never before has humanity faced such a tremendous
opportunity -- and never before have the risks been so
great. We must begin now to
build those bridges
that will take us beyond the cliffs and safely into the nano
era.
Mike Treder is a fellow of the IEET, and the Executive Director of the non-profit
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, an organization working to raise awareness of the issues presented by advanced nanotechnology.
IEET Blog