On Jamais Cascio‘s blog, he asks an interesting question (which he borrows from Paul Kedrosky, who attributes the idea to Richard Feynman). The question is: “If all knowledge about [your area of expertise] were to expire, what one sentence would you tell the future?”
Jamais listed me as someone he would like to see answer the question. Feeling unoriginal yesterday, I borrowed this peerless advice from Joe Miller: “Those who ignore the mistakes of the future are bound to make them.”
But as I thought about that quote, I wondered, what mistakes have been made in the past about understanding the mistakes of the future?
Consider this:
- In 1900, there was no such company as General Motors. Fifty years later, in 1950, GM was the biggest corporation in the world.
- In 1950, there was no such company as Microsoft. (In fact, Bill Gates was not even born yet!) Forty-five years later, in 1995, Microsoft was the most highly valued corporation in the world.
- In 1995, there was no such company as Google. Just ten years later, in 2005, Google was one of the most important companies in the world.
- In January 2005, there was no such company as YouTube. Just 21 months later, YouTube was sold to Google for $1.65 billion.
See a pattern here? It’s hard to predict the future. It’s nearly impossible to accurately forecast successes, so what chance do we really have at knowing the mistakes to avoid?
It should also be obvious from the data above that change is happening faster than it used to. Most of us know that, of course, but this reality only complicates the challenge. Change is happening faster, so mistakes are coming sooner. Is there any hope?
I’ve been asked before about the premise of CRN’s mission. Very bright people have suggested to me that trying to shape the evolution of a technology along “responsible” lines is, essentially, a fool’s errand. We don’t know enough, they say, and even if we did, no one really has the power to guide the evolving, emerging future.
Perhaps they are right. It certainly is easy to look at the past and conclude that we, all of us, are very nearly blind when it comes to looking ahead.
But somehow I’m not satisfied with that answer. I’m not willing to throw up my hands and let the future overtake us without at least trying to have an influence.
We do have some advantages that did not exist in 1900, or 1950, or even 1995. We have more history to learn from, for one thing. We have greater access to knowledge than anyone has ever had, thanks in part to Google. We have closer and more immediate connections to people, all around the world, who can join together to get things right.
Dennis Gabor has said, “The future cannot be predicted, but it can be invented.” So let’s begin inventing the future we want, right now, today.
One thing we know for certain is that if we do not try, then we can not succeed.
Mike Treder is a fellow of the IEET, and the Executive Director of the non-profit
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, an organization working to raise awareness of the issues presented by advanced nanotechnology.
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