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IEET > Vision > Futurism > Contributors > Patrick Tucker

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THE FUTURIST Magazine Releases Its Top 10 Forecasts for 2013 and Beyond


Patrick Tucker
Patrick Tucker
The Futurist

Posted: Oct 11, 2012

Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into the annual Outlook report.

Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, the 2008 financial crisis and the end of the Cold War. But these forecasts are meant as conversation starters, not absolute predictions about the future. We hope that this report—covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and technology—inspires you to tackle the challenges, and seize the opportunities, of the coming decade.

With no further ado, THE FUTURIST Magazine releases its top ten forecasts for 2013 and beyond. Special Thanks to THE FUTURIST for allowing IEET to repost this article, which originally appeared HERE

1. Neuroscientists may soon be able to predict what you’ll do before you do it.

The intention to do something, such as grasp a cup, produces blood flow to specific areas of the brain, so studying blood-flow patterns through neuroimaging could give researchers a better idea of what people have in mind. One potential application is improved prosthetic devices that respond to signals from the brain more like actual limbs do, according to researchers at the University of Western Ontario. World Trends and Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 10

2. Future cars will become producers of power rather than merely consumers.

A scheme envisioned at the Technology University of Delft would use fuel cells of parked electric vehicles to convert biogas or hydrogen into more electricity. And the owners would be paid for the energy their vehicles produce. Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 2

3. An aquaponic recycling system in every kitchen?

Future “farmers” may consist of householders recycling their food waste in their own aquariums. An aquaponic system being developed by SUNY ecological engineers would use leftover foods to feed a tank of tilapia or other fish, and then the fish waste would be used for growing vegetables. The goal is to reduce food waste and lower the cost of raising fish. Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2

4. The economy may become increasingly jobless, but there will be plenty of work.

Many recently lost jobs may never come back. Rather than worry about unemployment, however, tomorrow’s workers will focus on developing a variety of skills that could keep them working productively and continuously, whether they have jobs or not. It’ll be about finding out what other people need done, and doing it, suggests financial advisor James H. Lee. “Hard at Work in the Jobless Future,” Mar-Apr 2012, pp. 32-33

5. The next space age will launch after 2020, driven by competition and “adventure capitalists.”

While the U.S. space shuttle program is put to rest, entrepreneurs like Paul Allen, Elon Musk, Richard Branson, and Jeff Bezos are planning commercial launches to access low-Earth orbit and to ferry passengers to transcontinental destinations within hours. Challenges include perfecting new technologies, developing global operations, building new infrastructure, and gaining regulatory approval. “The New Age of Space Business,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 17

6. The “cloud” will become more intelligent, not just a place to store data.

Cloud intelligence will evolve into becoming an active resource in our daily lives, providing analysis and contextual advice. Virtual agents could, for example, design your family’s weekly menu based on everyone’s health profiles, fitness goals, and taste preferences, predict futurist consultants Chris Carbone and Kristin Nauth. “From Smart House to Networked Home,” July-Aug 2012, p. 30

7. Corporate reputations will be even more important to maintain, due to the transparency that will come with augmented reality.

In a “Rateocracy” as envisioned by management consultant Robert Moran, organizations’ reputations are quantified, and data could be included in geographically based information systems. You might choose one restaurant over another when your mobile augmented-reality app flashes warnings about health-department citations or poor customer reviews. “‘Rateocracy’ and Corporate Reputation,”, World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 12

8. Robots will become gentler caregivers in the next 10 years.

Lifting and transferring frail patients may be easier for robots than for human caregivers, but their strong arms typically lack sensitivity. Japanese researchers are improving the functionality of the RIBA II (Robot for Interactive Body Assistance), lining its arms and chest with sensors so it can lift its patients more gently. Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2

9. We’ll harness noise vibrations and other “junk” energy from the environment to power our gadgets.

Researchers at Georgia Tech are developing techniques for converting ambient microwave energy into DC power, which could be used for small devices like wireless sensors. And University of Buffalo physicist Surajit Sen is studying ways to use vibrations produced on roads and airport runways as energy sources. World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 9

10. A handheld “breathalyzer” will offer early detection of infections microbes and even chemical attacks.

The Single Breath Disease Diagnostics Breathalyzer under development at Stony Brook University would use sensor chips coated with nanowires to detect chemical compounds that may indicate the presence of diseases or infectious microbes. In the future, a handheld device could let you detect a range of risks, from lung cancer to anthrax exposure. Tomorrow in Brief, Sept-Oct 2012, p. 2

All of these forecasts plus dozens more were included in Outlook 2013, which scanned the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine over the course of the previous year.

Now, here’s something even cooler. THE FUTURIST has made public the contents from Outlook 2006 through 2012, more than 400 forecasts in all relating to 2013 and beyond: http://www.wfs.org/content/futurist/november-december-2011-vol-45-no-6/unwasted-energy.

Happy futuring!


Image 1: aquaponic recycling system
Image 2: caregiving robot

Special Thanks to THE FUTURIST for allowing IEET to repost this article, which originally appeared HERE


Patrick Tucker is a senior editor and writer for THE FUTURIST magazine, an international magazine about technological, environmental, and societal trends.
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COMMENTS


I read an interesting theory, I think it was in Robert Sawyer’s Webmind, that the work of consciousness is not the decision to move one’s hand, but the decision not to.

All of these look doable. There is some interesting work being done on apartment hydroponics with pop bottles. So I don’t see the fish one as much harder.

I’m not sure about the parked car one. If cars are efficient enough to be net producers of energy, they are probably also smart enough to drive themselves home and produce energy for the home. The other likelihood will be that people won’t own cars but will have shares in rides that will pick them up and drop them at work. That would reduce the amount of expense we put in to have our car parked most of the time we own it.





I don’t know if this is from the same issue but I also got this time line from now to 2100 from The Futurist magazine:

2015: Next Economic Cycle
Our timeline begins around the year 2015, when the following technological advancements are expected to start the next 35 year cycle
* E-Commerce. Internet use explodes worldwide, producing trillions of dollars in revenue.
* Global Access. About 50% of the world population will have internet access
* Globalization. At today’s rate, we’ll halve poverty by 2015.
* Green Business. 30% of corporations are likely to practice environmental management, leading to a $10 trillion-$20 trillions of dollars in revenue.
* Telemedicine. Online records, video conferences with your doctor, and other electronic practices will improve medical care and reduce escalating coasts.
* Telework. Globally, 1 billion people in 2010 were mobile workers, That number should increase to 1.3 billion.
* Spacetourism/Commercialism.  Spacetrips for tourists and visits to low-Earth orbit are likely to produce a boom commercial space.
2015-2020: Global Mega-crisis
From 2015 through 2020, a doubling of global GDP will cause the Global Mega-crisis to become intolerable, with the planet teetering on environmental collapse (see The Futurist, May-June 2011).  Here are TechCast’s four Scenarios:
* Decline to Disaster (25% probability): World fails to react, resulting in catastrophic natural and economic calamities.  Possible loss of civilization.
* Muddling Down (35% probability): World reacts only partially, so ecological damage, increased poverty, and conflict create major declines in life.
* Muddling up (25% probability): World reacts in time out of need and high-tech capabilities; widespread disaster averted, although many problems remain.
* Rise to Maturity (15% probability): World transitions to a possible global order.
2020: High-Tech Era
Assuming the world survives reasonably well (Muddling up), major breakthroughs are likely to introduce a high-tech Era:
Smart & Green transportation : e.g. intelligent cars, high speed trains.
* Climate Control, Alternative Energy
* Mastery of life. e.g. personal medication, organ replacement cancer cure.
* Second-Generation Information Technology, e.g, “good” artificial intelligence, automated routine knowledge, robots, infinite computing power.
2030-2050: Mature World Order
A mature world order evolves beyond knowledge to an age of global consciousness:
* Space: exploration & colonization of the Moon and Mars
* Advanced Energy: Fusion energy becomes viable.
* Life extension: Average life span reaches 100 years
* Expanded consciousness: e.g., generation AI, thought power, neurotechnology, Humans become almost godlike
2070-2100: Beyond Earth
* Deep Space: Contact is made: star travel becomes possible.
*Unified World Systems: Humanity achieves type I Civilization (mastery over most forms of planetary energy).





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