Recently I was contacted by a reporter for a major newspaper and asked to answer a few questions about “future trends in emerging technologies.” Here is what I said.
Generally, what trends/innovations will there be in nanotechnology in the next 10 to 20 years?
A trend to watch in technology over the next decade is convergence at the nanoscale (the scale of individual atoms and their combinations into molecules). As techniques and tools are improved, as scientific knowledge of what actually happens at the nanoscale increases, and as researchers learn better ways to control and manage the construction of molecules, we could see information technology, biotechnology, and nanotechnology converge to create a new discipline of molecular engineering. If that kind of engineering can be automated and exponentially multiplied, the possibility exists for a new form of manufacturing, one that builds from the bottom up. This might take longer than 10 or 20 years to accomplish, but it will be interesting to watch the progress as it occurs.
How much will they change societies (for good or bad)?
Most people overestimate the amount of change that will take place in the short term and underestimate how much change will happen in the long term. I would be surprised if there are any innovations in the next decade that are revolutionary enough to disrupt society. But looking ahead 20, 30, or 40 years we should be surprised if there are not seriously disruptive changes. The trick, however, is figuring out which changes will take place first and which of those will be the most disruptive. It’s more than likely the unexpected, unanticipated changes that will make the biggest difference. That’s why we try to emphasize the need not just for prediction in our work at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, but for preparation—and the best form of preparation is one that incorporates resilience, the ability to absorb and adjust to rapid changes without undue disruption.
Are we prepared for such changes? Will they be radical, and how can we cope?
A classic example of how technology affects society in unexpected ways is the impact of global warming. For more than a century, coal was mined, oil was collected, roads and factories were built, autos rolled off the assembly lines, and basically no one was able to look ahead and see that as a result humans were actually changing the climate of the Earth, far more than natural processes ever could. What will be the unintended consequences of the next round of technological advancement? It’s likely that some of them will be quite radical, perhaps as radical as global warming itself, and then we will have to find a way to cope with those changes as well. Are we prepared? No, not really, but our focus should be to develop not only a more sustainable human civilization, but also more adaptable and resilient systems of governance, economics, and production.
Mike Treder is a former Managing Director of the IEET.