But hasn't anyone noticed that Putin just lost Ukraine? After centuries of Ukraine being a vassal state –under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union – it is moving away from Russia and towards Western Europe. History will look at recent events as the spur to that movement and will probably celebrate the fact that the West had little leeway to intervene. It will note that when your adversary is shooting himself in the foot it is best not to interfere.  Sometimes doing nothing is the best something to do.

 

Ironically 'separating' Crimea from Ukraine will seal the deal of separating Ukraine from Russia. Crimea has never in its entire history been really a part of the Ukraine. It was appended to the Ukraine from Russia in 1954 by executive fiat of Nikita Khrushchev. But this was only a fiction – Russia always completely controlled it and if it had stayed part of Ukraine it would have constituted a Russian foothold in Ukraine's political life. And if Putin is stupid enough to invade and annex other eastern portions of Ukraine (the predominately Russian speaking part) it will have sealed off Ukraine from Russia forever. Ukraine will quickly come to resemble Poland and will be entirely western oriented.  Putin's dream of reconstituting the Russian Empire will have completely died.

 

Much has been made of the ethnic divide in the Ukraine between Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers. But this has been greatly exaggerated. More nuanced reporting has noted that Putin's bully-boy tactics have alienated a large portion of the Ukraine's Russian speaking population – especially the younger professionals who rightfully see their future more secure in Europe rather than Russia. Some of the most prominent leaders of the resistance to Putin and in favor of European Union economic affiliation over the so-called Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are themselves Russian speakers – such as Vitali Klitschko and Yulia Tymoshenko.

As one ethnic Russian put it "Putin is uniting the Ukraine".

 

Putin has consistently played a poor strategic hand in Ukraine. He could have supported Ukraine's association with the EU on condition that they also have an association with the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. This would not only have benefited Ukraine's economy but would have given Russia a back door to the EU without any of the obligations. This would have made Ukraine a bridge between East and West and guaranteed that Crimea would in perpetuity be de facto ruled by Russian as well halting NATO expansion to the east. Russia would have retained tremendous leverage in the internal politics of Ukraine. Instead he interfered clumsily and completely lost all such leverage.  

 

Yes he has 'gained' Crimea (he always had it) but he has lost the trust of the West, lost Ukraine and caused tremendous damage to Russia's economy. In the week following the occupation of Crimea the Russian stock market fell 12% wiping out 60 billion dollars in value.  It is estimated that 70 billion dollars will have drained out of the country in the first quarter of 2014 due to the crisis. Interest rates have risen significantly. Russia's credit rating has been downgraded. Potential international investments are now in limbo.  Russia has been expelled from the G8 (now the G7).  All this on the heels of an already stagnating economy: the Stock Market had declined over 7% in 2013 before the crisis and real economic growth was approaching zero; and is now in danger of becoming negative.

 

Ukraine is just a repeat of Putin's mistake in Syria where he has alienated the entire Sunni Muslim world. In Syria he traded long term strategic success for immediate short-term tactical success in keeping Assad in power.

In hindsight Syria and the Ukraine will be seen as analogous to Iraq and Afghanistan for the United States, but with more serious consequences as Russia is really a Potemkin village of a super power. Its economy is one eighth that of the United States with half the population. The economy is actually a Third World economy similar to Africa's in that it is almost completely dependent on commodity exports: over 80% of which consist of oil, gas, wood, minerals and agricultural products.

 

Russia's population is shrinking over a half a million a year. It is the only country in the world with a declining life expectancy.  Alcoholism is the main cause and is so rife that the state cannot depend on vast segments of its male population to do any job competently. Consequently Russia now has more foreign workers (over 10 million) than any other country in Europe, mostly from the Muslim former Soviet republics. This has caused serious social dislocation and racism in Russia. Millions of Sunni Muslims from nations that were seriously persecuted first by the Romanovs and then by the USSR (and resentful over current actions in Syria) are also a serious security problem.

Obama might not be winning, but Putin is certainly losing. 

 

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Tsvi Bisk is an Israeli/American Futurist, Social Researcher and Strategy Planning Consultant. He is currently Director of the Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking as well as Contributing Editor for Strategic Thinking to The Futurist magazine.  He has published over 100 articles and essays and two books: The Optimistic Jew: A Positive Vision for the Jewish People in the 21st Century and Futurizing the Jews: Alternative Visions for Meaningful Jewish Existence in the 21st Century