In the US, the overall Consumer Confidence Index posted also a significant decrease at year-end. This fall was largely due to uncertainties surrounding the “fiscal cliff,” which threatened $600 billion of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts in 2013.

This sparked fears of a recession, despite other improving indicators such as a mild upswing in the housing market and slightly better figures for the jobs markets.

The growth pattern for Africa as a whole was relatively robust during 2012, buoyed by strong domestic demand. However, economic momentum in the near term is likely to be affected by external headwinds stemming largely from the continued instability in the Eurozone and a slowdown in the global recovery, which is curtailing demand for Africa’s exports.

Most of the Africa’s oil-exporting countries are maintaining a healthy growth rate, although the four African OPEC members (Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria) reveal mixed performances. Their total crude oil production has been levelling out in recent months, even posting a decrease of 2.1% in November compared to the previous month.

However, Libya’s economy is recovering faster than expected with the restoration of hydrocarbon production, which is currently approaching its pre-conflict level. Nigeria saw growth expanding by an annual rate of 6.5% in the third quarter of 2012, while it scaled up its oil production.

In terms of trade links, Africa still relies heavily on Europe as its major partner, despite China’s emergence as a new destination for many of its commodities. Subdued economic growth and dampened consumer confidence in Europe continue to hold back Africa’s overall export volumes.

In South Africa, domestic demand helped to maintain economic growth at a modest pace. Latest figures show that GDP, in seasonally adjusted volume terms, grew only by an annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2012, from 2.8% in the previous quarter. By sector, service activities contributed the most to annual GDP (1.6%), with manufacturing contributing only 0.4%. However, strikes in the mining (gold, platinum and coal) industries are expected to reduce exports by 12.5 bn rand ($1.4 bn) and to shave around 0.5% off GDP growth this year, according to the Finance Ministry. It is expected that growth will record a technical bounce in early 2013 as mining output recovers and business activity normalizes gradually (see “Focus” section for more on South Africa).

North African countries, in addition to coping with the after-effects of the Arab Spring, have also been impacted by the slowdown in the EU, which accounts for nearly half of the sub-region’s trade and is a major contributor to tourism receipts. Continued political unrest in Egypt has seen a drop in tourist numbers, on which the economy heavily depends.

The Egyptian pound sank to a record low against the dollar on December 30, after a wave of panic buying sparked by the central bank’s first foreign currency auction, which was an attempt to slow down depletion of its reserves. Reserves now stand at $15 bn, down from $36 bn just before the 2011 popular uprising. The Egyptian government plans to resume talks with the IMF to try to secure a loan of around $4.8 bn in early 2013.

Tunisia’s economy showed a healthier trend, posting 3.5% growth in Q3, up from 2.1% the previous quarter, though still well below its Q1 level of 4.6%. Morocco’s economy, although escaping the political unrest, grew at a sluggish 2.9% in Q3, up from 2.3% growth in Q2. Morocco’s agricultural output has hard-hit by drought, while its tourism industry is suffering from the slow pace of economic recovery in Europe, which is its major trading partner.

Austerity measures in Europe have curtailed the disposable incomes of this principal tourism market, as well as reducing money transfers from the 2 million Moroccans residing in Europe.

Elsewhere, economic activity has held up in most African countries, with the tertiary sector – particularly telecommunications – performing well. Macroeconomic policies have remained generally accommodative, except for some countries in Eastern Africa, where monetary tightening has been deployed to rein in inflation. In the Horn of Africa, agricultural output is recovering after earlier severe drought.