Africa and its impact on world trade
Lee-Roy Chetty
2013-07-23 00:00:00

Within a traditional economic context, these export markets are Africa’s staple export partners, and as a result, inevitably this has led to a knock-on effect on the African continent’s trade.



At the same time, however, Africa has benefited from the emergence of a fundamental rebalancing that has seen centres of growth and trade shifting eastwards and southwards, away from the industrialized economies that politically and economically dominated the 20th century, towards a more equitable distribution of growth.



Dramatically increased trade and investment with and from Asian countries has been one manifestation of this. China’s share of African trade has been growing at a compound rate of 14% per annum to $200 billion in 2012, overtaking that of the United States. In addition, Malaysia was the largest source of investment in the continent from Asia in 2011.



Indian, Singaporean and Thai companies are also making major investments with Brazil’s trade with Africa in excess of $10 billion a year.



Perhaps more importantly, buoyed by internal dynamics – its urbanising, growing population and improving political stability – Africa itself is becoming a pole of growth. However, many African countries have not yet fully capitalized on their neighbours’ growth. While trade with Asian markets has increased rapidly, intra-African trade has remained a relatively small proportion of the total – around 13.5% according to World Trade Organization’s figures in early 2013.



For years intra-African trade has been constrained by the historical configuration of infrastructure, by the political hangovers of the Cold War era and by the failure of many African economies to move from primary commodity production to manufacturing, and in particular to manufacturing of products tailored for African markets.



These factors, in addition to the relatively easy money to be made in supporting primary exports to existing markets, have contributed to a lack of investment in mechanisms – both physical and financial – for intra-African trade.





Stronger intra-African trade could act as a catalyst for growth. While Africa’s exports are 80% raw commodities and 20% processed goods, intra-African trade accounts for 40% of the former and 60% of the latter. International trade was at the heart of the economic boom in Asia, driving the creation of productive employment, in particular in manufactured goods, as developed markets took advantage first of labour arbitrage and then of the increasing sophistication of the production capacity in Asia. Larger numbers of higher quality jobs moved millions of the South Korean and Chinese populations out of poverty. This trade, though, was not exclusively with the west. In fact, today more than 50% of Asian trade is within the region.



Likewise, the opening borders of post-war Europe drove that continent’s growth, and helped to move peripheral countries forwards alongside traditionally stronger economies – until the bursting of the credit bubble and the ensuing financial crisis at the end of the last decade.



Trade within the continent – just like trade with the rest of the world – would be a driver of growth. But more importantly, it could be the key to more equitable, sustainable growth. Africa accounts for less than one per cent of manufacturing value added and imports many of the manufactured goods that it uses. Exports of primary commodities, which represent the bulk of the continent’s trade, do not lead to the creation of many productive jobs.



Of equal value, given the current external environment, is the way that building strong regional markets insulates developing countries from external shocks that emanate from the industrialized world.



The infrastructure deficits that have contributed to this ongoing problem are well known, and despite concerted efforts in the political sphere to improve the links within and between the continent’s major trading blocs, policy and regulatory hurdles remain. However, there is an additional barrier that is currently preventing companies, particularly smaller companies, from participating in the cross-border growth in trade liquidity.





With the cost of trade still high in the developing world – far higher than in industrialized markets – small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges in accessing the credit they need to get their goods to market. The international financial crisis saw many financiers pull back liquidity from emerging markets and from trade finance more generally in order to cover positions in their home jurisdictions. Local financial institutions found it hard to access credit in international markets, with considerable knock-on effects for small-and medium-sized enterprises.