Education for the Future
Christopher Reinert
2013-07-10 00:00:00

Education for the Future

A few weeks ago, at a semi-annual family reunion, I was chatting with a cousin of mine whose daughter was about one year old. After exhausting conversational topics related to infant care, I asked if they had any plans for the what type of job they wanted her to hold when she grew up. The dad wanted the daughter to grow up to be an A/C technician, but the mother was willing to accept any technical profession. Their reasoning was that A/C repair was a field that she would always find work in so long as people used air conditioning.

This conversation, while light hearted in tone, set me to thinking about the inherent value of my own college education. Was it worth going to four years of university to earn two degrees which did not automatically ensure employment? Extrapolating further into the future, what would the value of a college level education be in an economy where professions originally only the domain of humans had been mechanized? Would technical or vocational educations still be a valuable investment if those fields were mechanized?

It is easy to lament what some would call an encroachment of mechanization into more sectors of the economy. These lamentations fail to address a deeper issue; how should we educate ourselves and future generations for a world where mechanization affects every profession? The type of educational policy we consciously and unconsciously implement will directly influence the future of our economy.

Mechanization and Educational Models

Before discussing the different types of educational approaches and possible future economies, it is imperative to establish the general benefits and concerns of increased mechanization. One consequence of the mechanization of an industry is increased unemployment the sector of the economy the industry is in. It can be argued that those workers who were unemployed are able to retrain for jobs that have not been mechanized.

Mechanization and automation allow humans to be put to better use in a given industry. Instead of doing manual labor or rote tasks, human labor and expertise is applied to more complex tasks. An example of this would be a robotic call center. An automated system can handle routine complaints or problems but would direct complex problems to human operators.

In addition to mechanization, it is important to establish the two ends of the spectrum of educational philosophies discussed in this article. Generalist educational models focus on educating students in a wide variety of subjects in order to establish a uniform knowledge base throughout the population. The benefit of such models are the near uniform distribution of knowledge. A generalist model allows observers to reasonably assume that high school students from California have the same knowledge as students from Maine.

This uniformity has the inherent consequence of producing students who have superficial knowledge of various subjects. In order to ensure that everyone has mastered numerous enumerated educational standards, teachers are unable to go into detail about any subject. A student may know math to sufficiently pass a test, but have no deeper understanding of the underlying principles.

At the other end of the spectrum lie specialist models of education. Such models encourage deep mastery of a subject as opposed to superficial knowledge of many subjects. Students know a great deal about one subject matter, but very little about anything else. These educational models are useful for specialized fields and professions, such as internal medicine, that require in-depth learning. However, such models are expensive to maintain as a means of universal public education. There would be no way to ensure that engineers had the same basic skills, such as language or social studies, as a lawyer.

Currently, the American education system could be described mixed model that lies between both ends of the spectrum. Generalist education models are used in elementary, middle and high schools because such models ensure that students have common intellectual foundations. Specialist models are employed by university and trade schools. Students attending these institutions are encouraged to pursue a major or career path that interests them.

Models of Future Economies

Now that the broad strokes of mechanization and education systems have been explained, we can now discuss possible future economies and the education systems necessary to support them. It would be impossible to discuss all possible future economies in a short paper. Such a paper would rely on too many assumptions and speculations about future events to be of any merit. Instead I will focus on categories of economies. The three categories of future economies discussed below are divided by the percentage of mechanized occupations in the economy.



The Minimally Mechanized Model

The first category can be labeled the Minimally Mechanized Model (MMM). This category could be used to describe economies where less than ten percent of all possible occupations are mechanized and hiring human labor is encouraged. What tasks that are mechanized are those that have been deemed too dangerous for a human to perform.

Adopting an MMM type economy would provide certain advantages to the populace as a whole. High rates of employment would lower the crime rate. Employed individuals, it can be argued, have a lessened incentive to commit a crime. As such, populace would benefit from other occurrences related to the lowered crime rate.

Such economies are not without their drawbacks. Employing human labor is an expensive proposition. Humans require healthcare, reasonable wages, sick days, retirement packages and other benefits. The cost of maintaining a ninety percent human work force would drive prices of all goods and services up. This price increase would be necessary for businesses to keep humans employed.

Another drawback with this model is the problem of underemployment. Humans may be gainfully employed, but they would be in positions that do not utilize their talents to their fullest extent. In the short term, for example five years, underemployment may be an invariable consequence of an economic conditions. An ongoing war may increase the need for unskilled workers in specific industries. If underemployment conditions last too long, for beyond five years, the worker’s skills become outdated and they lose opportunities to be upward mobile.

The Mixed Workforce Model

The second category of economies, which we could call the Mixed Workforce Model (MWM), is the broadest category of the three. This broadness is attributed to the fact that MWM economies can range widely in total percentage of mechanized professions. This range includes anywhere from fifteen percent mechanization to seventy percent mechanization. The uniting theme connecting these economies is that automated professions are ones requiring little to no direct contact with humans.

A primary benefits of adopting an MWM type economy is flexible economic planning within economic sectors. A nation could choose an economic model where machines and automated agents perform rote tasks that would do not require direct human human supervision. This could be considered an example of mechanization across sectors. Imagine drawing a line bisecting all possible jobs in an economic sector. All tasks below the line are mechanized while those above are carried out by humans. Such a plan would provide workers time to retrain in different industries after losing their job.

Conversely, a nation could select an MWM economy where certain sectors of the economy are mechanized. For example, the manufacturing sector of an economy could be mechanized to the degree that humans only need to input a design for construction.

Both forms of mechanization would provide the fringe benefit of scientific and cultural growth. Mechanization would exponentially increase the amount of work a single human could produce at a given time. This increase in production can be put towards scientific developments or mega projects that previous generations have balked at. Essentially, mechanization would make exploring the local solar system a cost efficient venture because enough material is produced to support the project.

There are several drawbacks of adopting this type of system. Unlike MMM economies, the problem of unemployment would heavily impact MWM economies. Whether the economy is mechanized within or across a sector, a significant percentage of the population going to lose their job. This unemployment trend would impact economic sectors in different ways. One sector may be immune to mechanization while another is forced to lay off workers at record numbers.

An additional problem stemming from unemployment is a change in purchasing behavior. If a significant percentage of the workforce is unemployed, and therefore are not drawing in a pay check, that percentage is not purchasing any goods. A positive feedback loop arises as more people lose their jobs and can no longer afford to purchase goods.

In such a situation, the adoption of a universal standard wage would be a prudent move. Some may claim this is a form of unemployment, but that is not the case. Unemployment benefits are meant as temporary measures while a person is finding work. A universal standard wage is meant to address unemployment caused by mechanization.

Extensively Mechanized Workforce Models

The third and final future economy is Extensively Mechanized Workforce Model. Unlike economies belonging to the other two models, EMW economies are over seventy percent mechanized. What occupations that are available for humans exist in highly specialized fields or occupations requiring constant, direct human contact.

The benefits derived from adopting an EMW economy are similar to the benefits of a MWM economy. A high degree of mechanization of labor would allow humans to pursue intellectual and cultural activities formerly considered esoteric or prohibitively expensive . For example, sending a manned mission to Mars or other celestial bodies would be possible because the resources to send the mission are readily available.

While an EMW economy would usher in new intellectual pursuits, such an economy could only exist in a post-scarcity society. Unlike the other two models, an EWM model requires that goods and services be so plentiful they could no longer be considered scarce. In a post-scarcity economy, it is reasonable to assume that large portions of the population would be unemployed, either by choice or mechanization. This high level of unemployment would be sustainable if goods were post-scarcity.

An EWM economy is not unattainable in the long term, but unattainable in the short term. This economy would be unattainable until two conditions were meet. First, the public would have to accept the reality of extensive mechanization in the workforce. This would require social and legal systems to be adjusted to accept the high levels of unemployment. Additionally, the education system would need to be modified to train students in specialized fields. Such an economy could be attained, but only after a society adopted a MWM.

Future Educational Systems

Now that we have established three possible futures, the question becomes what economic model do we want to adopt and how do we want to shape educational policies to achieve that goal? We also need to ask ourselves how will the nature of education change and how quickly will those changes spread? To answer this, lets examine the impact of technology on education

As a recent graduate, I have often heard the claim that my generation is dumber than previous ones. I will not address this claim in this paper save to say that the common theme of such claims is that the education system has been watered down. Some say current students are not taught critical skills while others say that the system is close to collapse. What is overlooked in these arguments is the effect of technology on education.

One could make the argument that today’s youth are less intelligent than previous generations. However, this claim overlooks current student’s access to computers and the internet. Additionally, certain subjects, such as cursive, are being cut in some states because they are no longer relevant in the digital age. A student today may be less intelligent when it comes to certain skills, but have advanced knowledge of how to use new technologies.

Both generalist and specialist educational models benefit from an increased presence of technology in the classroom. Generalist models can use technology to teach an increased number of students. One potential problem with teaching an increased number of students is that each student has their own learning style. If this educational technology was too uniform, students who were not visual learners would be at a disadvantage. This could be counter by giving students the ability to tailor the technology to suit their needs.

An increase in the availability and decrease in cost of implementing educational technologies would make specialized education a more cost efficient option. The lowered cost of technology allows for a formerly expensive technology to be distributed more widely. In turn, this makes specialized education a viable option for students who were unable to access special education.

As a brief aside, the rise of online learning does not negate the need for a physical classroom. While the subject matter taught in the classroom can be replicated online, the social interactions in the classroom cannot be so easily replicated. Lessons in the physical classroom involve socialization, conflict resolution and social mores.

The type of future we select will dictate our educational policy. A MMM economy would be best attained by a generalist model with some specialized elements. The generalist model would allow for a trained workforce which could be employed in a wide variety of semi-skilled occupations. Specialized schools would exist to train students for skilled occupations.

Is this a plausible educational model and a future we want to select? In broad terms, the educational model is plausible. In some sense, it would involve a step back to an older educational model from a time when mechanization was not as widespread. College and trade schools did exist, but only for the well qualified individuals. Everyone else found employment in jobs that required no special training.

Would we want to return to such a model? I would argue that the benefits of such a model, namely high rates of human employment, would be outweighed by the costs of employing it. Namely, such an economic model would only be sustainable if every other country on the planet adopted a similar model. Such a model would only work in countries where human labor was extremely cheap and the costs associated with mechanization were prohibitively expensive. This model is attainable, but would take more than twenty years of planning for the results to fruition.

A MWM economy would be the easiest for an industrialized country to transition to within twenty years. The educational system would need to be overhauled to focus on training students for skilled professions. This transition is easier to accomplish because schools could adopt a specialized educational approach. Generalist learning would not be discouraged, but after a certain age, education would focus on specialization.

The relative ease of transitioning the educational system makes a MWM model a reasonable choice. Such a model is flexible when it comes to degree of mechanization. This allows a country time to adjust to varying levels of unemployment by retraining individuals. The scale of mechanization in an MWM economy also allows a nation to shift towards a MMM or EWM economic model with minimal social disruption.

Like the MMM model, the EWM model is unattainable within twenty years. The high levels of mechanization would demand an educational model that favored specialization. At the present, such a model is unattainable because we lack the financial resources necessary to build a series of specialized schools. Additionally, society has not reached a point where high levels of mechanization are accepted as the norm.

Could this model be attainable in a period beyond twenty years? With proper educational and social planning, this model could be achieved. Over a period of one hundred years, the cost of implementing specialist schools will be ameliorated as new specialists and educational technologies enter the market. A shift in educational technologies would lower the cost of a specialized education.