Turn on the Nanotech High Beams
Mike Treder
2005-04-01 00:00:00
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Thats the state of nanotechnology today. Were
advancing rapidly into uncharted territory. The changes
this technology will bring may arrive sooner than we are
prepared to respond effectively to them.


Its like driving a car in the darkness with only
your headlights to show whats ahead. The speed you are
driving exceeds your ability to react, and if something
suddenly comes out of the darkness, you wont have time
to respond and avoid disaster.


One other thing: you dont know it, but there is a
chasm up ahead in the distance. You are driving directly
toward it, very fast, and you dont even know its
there.


Whats the solution? Two things:


First, turn on your high beams! Your normal
headlights will illuminate only a short distance ahead,
not far enough to react if youre going fast. By turning
on the high beams, you can almost triple the
illumination distance.


When we hear people talk about risks of
nanotechnology, they often speak only of the
short-term hazards caused by todays
practices and productsmostly nanoparticle toxicity. But
thats like driving with the low beams on. Theyre not
looking far enough ahead, toward more serious potential
dangers.


The second thing to do is activate your cell phone
(its built in to the steering wheel of your car) and
call someone who might help you better understand where
you are going. You could connect with someone who has a
satellite view of the area, and who can warn you of the
chasm in the distance. They might even be able to
organize a work party to build a bridge over that chasm
so you can travel in safety.


My organization, the Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology, is a nonprofit think tank concerned with
the major societal implications of advanced
nanotechnology. We promote public awareness and
education, and the crafting of responsible policy to
maximize benefits and reduce dangers.


Through our research, were creating the equivalent
of a satellite picture of whats ahead. It may not be
refined enough to see all the details, but we think its
clear that a chasm looms in the distance, and a bridge
must be built to safely cross it. But there isnt much
time. Unless we start now, we might get there before we
are prepared to respond effectively and avoid disaster.


Most of the work being done today that carries the
name nanotechnology is not nanotechnology in
the original meaning of the word.


Nanotechnology, in its traditional sense, means
building things from the bottom up, with atomic
precision. This theoretical capability was envisioned as
early as 1959 by the renowned physicist Richard Feynman.


In recent years, both governments and companies have
adopted a far broader definition of the word,
essentially meaning any work being done on the scale of
1 to 100 nanometers. This is important work and valuable
work, but in many cases, it is not fundamentally
different from what has been done before. Societal
impacts of this work may be significant, but they almost
all will be incremental impactsnot transformativeand
can be dealt with using existing systems, institutions,
and solutions.


To distinguish this broad and diverse field of work
from the original meaning of nanotechnology, we refer to
most of what is being done today as nanoscale
technologies.


Advanced nanotechnology promises the ability to build
atomically precise machines and components of molecular
size. Using mechanically guided chemistry, rapid
prototyping, and automated convergent assembly, an
integrated system of productive nanosystemswhat we call
a nanofactorycould combine these molecular
components into large and complex products, including
additional nanofactories.


A nanofactory should be able to provide cheap, clean,
rapid manufacturing. The resulting abundance (from many
nanofactories) has the potential to alleviate most
shortages and enable a high standard of living for
everyone who has access to it. Rapid, cheap, flexible
manufacturing will allow swift development of new
inventions, spurring innovation and creating further
benefits.


Unfortunately, a technology this powerful could
easily be misused. The rapid development cycle and
massive manufacturing capability may lead to an unstable
arms race between competing powers. Excessive
restrictions that limit access to the technology or
limit distribution of the benefits may lead to an
inhumane gap between rich and poor, and may encourage a
black market in unsafe molecular manufacturing.
Insufficient restrictions may allow small groups
and even individuals to produce undesirable products or
terrorist tools. These and other dangers are the jagged
rocks at the bottom of the chasm you're driving toward.


Advanced nanotechnology, along with other
technologies that it will enhance or enable, will create
new problems and new opportunities that require new
solutions. These technologies will be more
transformative than most people expect, and could
develop too rapidly for reactive policy to
succeed. We urgently need a better understanding of
numerous factors related to molecular manufacturing, to
prepare for its possible development sometime within the
next decade.


To date, there has not been anything approaching an
adequate study of these issues. In order to correct
this, we have outlined a series of thirty recommended
studies, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential,
product capabilities, and policy questions. Preliminary
conclusions to these studies have been identified, and
because our understanding points to a crisis, work on
all of them should begin immediately, and in parallel.
That would be the equivalent of turning on our high
beams.


The products of a nanofactory could have
unprecedented power and efficiency. Some restrictions,
implemented worldwide, probably will be necessary for
sufficient control of the use of molecular
manufacturing. That would be the equivalent of building
a bridge to safely cross the chasm into the coming nano
era.


But if the dangers are so great, why not just slow
down?


Thats a good question, and it may turn out to be
part of the solution. But its not as simple as it
sounds.


For one thing, there is more than one car. In fact,
its a drag race in the dark through uncharted
territory.


Other countries besides the United States have
active, well-funded programs to develop nanoscale
technologies. These include Japan, China, Australia,
Singapore, Russia, Israel, Brazil, India, and many
nations within the European Union. The president of
India, himself a nuclear physicist, has gone so far as
to say that advanced nanotechnology must be developed by
his countrys scientists because, among other things, it
would revolutionize the total concepts of future
warfare.


Just because one country or group of countries
decides to slow down, that does not mean everyone will.


Development of molecular manufacturing technology
will rapidly become easier. Several technologies allow
direct creation of complex structures less than 20 atoms
wide, and single-atom lithography is being developed.
Top-down and bottom-up approaches are meeting in the
middle, and may learn to combine their efforts.
Automated assembly has been used for decades; rapid 3D
prototyping is quickly developing from industrial to
home use.


Molecular manufacturing and assembly will be simpler
and easier in many ways than normal manufacturing.
Fast-track development programs, some of which may be
secret, competitive, and unregulated, will be driven by
powerful economic and military incentives.


General-purpose molecular manufacturing appears to be
inevitable. It might become a reality by 2010, likely
will by 2015, and almost certainly will by 2020. When it
arrives, it will come quickly. To be prepared for the
coming development of molecular manufacturing
technology, we must start planning for it immediately.


Who should be concerned? Anyone whose planning
horizon extends to ten years or more, including groups
focused on:



Molecular manufacturing represents power: political
power, military power, and financial power. Who controls
that power and how widelyhow democraticallyit
is distributed will make all the difference when the
technology is developed. Decisions we make before
that time will determine whether our world becomes safer
or more dangerous; more just or less just; more free or
more oppressive.


We need to turn our high beams on and use the cell
phone. Only by taking a long view and sharing
information between networked communities can we meet
the test of creating wise, comprehensive, and balanced
plans for an effective global response to this
transformative, disruptive technology.


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