Economists best estimates of total world
product (average wealth per person times the
number of people) show it to have been
growing exponentially over the last century,
doubling about every fifteen years, or about
sixty times faster than under farming. And a
model of the whole time series as a
transition from a farming exponential mode
to an industry exponential mode suggests
that the transition is not over yet -- we
are slowly approaching a real industry
doubling time of about six years, or one
hundred and fifty times the farming growth
rate.

Robotics, artificial intelligence, and/or
machines replacing human labor are suggested by
Hanson as probable prime movers in the next huge
wave of innovation. That's not surprising, and
it fits nicely with the contention of the Center
for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) that

molecular
manufacturing -- a powerful blend
of machines, robotics, and supercomputer
intelligence -- will drive a new industrial
revolution in the coming decades.

What Hanson foresees, however, is not only
revolutionary; it is transformative and
potentially disruptive change. Again, this is
right in line with

CRN's
warnings.

Underlying Hanson's provocative claim is his
analysis of economic growth rates, not just in
the recent past, but over the full history of
humankind.  This leads to a near future
point where he sees machine productivity as key
for massive increases in wealth...

[W]e pay seventy percent of world income for
human labor, so anything that can lower this
cost can have a huge impact. . . While
machines have sometimes displaced human
workers, they have much more often helped
humans be more productive at tasks that
machines cannot do. Machines have thus on
net raised the value, and hence the cost, of
human labor. And because people are
essential, the limited rate of human
population growth has limited the economic
growth rate.

Once we have machines that can do almost
all the tasks that people can do, however,
this picture changes dramatically. Since the
number of machines can grow as fast as the
economy needs them, human population growth
no longer limits economic growth. In fact,
simple growth models which assume no other
changes can easily allow a new doubling time
of a month, a week, or even less.

Unfortunately, this explosive growth may not
come without a cost...

This is disturbing because human wages
should fall quickly with the falling price
of machines. So while humans who owned
shares in the firms that made machines would
get very rich, those whose only source of
income was their labor could die of
starvation.

Severe economic disruption -- and resulting
social chaos -- is a

major risk
of the molecular manufacturing revolution.

Dr. Hanson prescribes increased awareness...

If we stand back from all the big events and
innovations we have seen in the last century
and look at the overall world economic
growth rate, it seems surprisingly steady. .
. Looking further back in time, however, we
see that once in a while something has
changed the growth rate by enormous factors
in a relatively short time. We might do well
to not ignore such a speeding freight train
until it actually hits us.

Hit by a speeding freight train is his
analogy, but I prefer to put us in the
driver's seat,

racing very
fast on a poorly marked road into
pitch-black darkness. That's the state of the
world as we move rapidly toward the

Nano Era.