Let's clarify things by looking at a simple decision tree.

First, someone will decide whether or not we should send signals into space announcing our presence to any advanced extraterrestrial civilization that might be listening.

Then, either we will get a response from one or more ETIs or we won't.

Finally, the result of that encounter, should it occur, will either be good for us, overall, or bad for us.




Does that make sense so far?


All right, now we can arbitrarily assign some probability percentages at each level of the decision tree. Like this:




But wait, you ask, why did you choose those particular numbers? Aren't you just guessing?

Yes, of course, I am just guessing. Other than the number at the top -- and one other number I'll get to in a minute -- the figures I've put in there are just reasonable estimates, at best. We can say for sure, obviously, that there is a 100% probability that a choice will be made whether or not to transmit signals into space overtly announcing our presence.

In fact, that decision has already been made, as we have been regularly sending targeted signals since 1999. But for argument's sake let's assume that in the future a decision might be made to stop sending such signals. And let's assume the odds of that taking place are about 20%.

You can argue whether that 20% figure is too high or too low, and you can also argue whether our odds of receiving a response are higher or lower than the 10% figure I've applied, and you might argue that those odds will increase if we DO send a signal and decrease if we DON'T send a signal -- but there is one other figure you can't argue about (besides the 100% at the top), and that is the 50/50 probability on whether contact with ETIs would turn out good or bad for humanity. Because no one knows.

No one knows whether such an encounter would be wildly beneficial to us, or deadly existential, or somewhere in between. No one knows, and until we actually make contact, there is no way that anyone can know. It's all just educated guesswork.

So, on the basis of that reasoning, it really doesn't matter whether or not we decide to continue beaming out Yoohoo! messages into space. Because the odds of the outcome being good for us or bad for us is just a flip of the coin.

However -- and this is a big however -- while the actual decision itself may not be of much consequence, the process of deciding who gets to decide could be crucial.

How do we choose who makes decisions that affect the entire human race and potentially all life on Earth?

In the case of Active SETI, it might not matter what choice is made, but in deciding who gets to choose, we could be setting precedents that will have very definite impacts in other areas.

For example, how do we decide who gets to choose whether major geoengineering projects are initiated? Or whether genetic modification of the human germline is widely practiced? How do we decide who gets to choose whether the Internet is free or restricted? Or whether global federalism is attempted?

How do we decide who gets to make those choices on behalf of all of us?

Is it reasonable to continue allowing such decisions to be made ad hoc, often by a tiny unelected minority? Or letting decisions emerge without any attempt at organized consensus, let alone stakeholder representation? On the other hand, would an effort to impose structure end up being counterproductive, either by creating cumbersome loads of bureaucracy or by giving powerful interests an opportunity to seize control of the process?

These are the vital ethical questions being made evident by considering the issue of Active SETI.

And so, while I happen to agree with George Dvorsky that the worries about ET comin' to get us are much ado about nothing, and while I think the Fermi Paradox strongly indicates that no one is out there to hear us even if we shout, I also agree with David Brin and with Phil Torres that the key question here is who gets to decide whether we send out signals, and finally, I contend that how we go about making that decision could have far-reaching consequences for the future of human civilization and our planetary home.