A Rough Guide to the Future
Mike Treder
2010-11-23 00:00:00

Jon Turney has produced an excellent, compelling, accessible overview of futurology that rewards both skimming and deeper reading. Gathering together ideas from many disciplines and opinions from diverse perspectives, he offers a moderate, believable, but still thrilling exploration of what lies ahead.

Or what might lie ahead.book cover

Sprinkled throughout the book are short commentaries from fifty "thoughtful futurologists, scientists, and other experts." Each of them was asked to briefly state his or her highest hopes, worst fears, and best bets for what this century holds.

Included are thoughts from such luminaries as Freeman Dyson, Bill McKibben, Gregory Benford, Parag Khanna, James Pinkerton, William Calvin, and James Howard Kunstler.

I'm also pleased to report that ten associates of the IEET were asked to contribute commentaries to the book. They are: Nick Bostrom, David Brin, Jamais Cascio, Aubrey de Grey, Richard Eskow, James Hughes, Giulio Prisco, Melanie Swan, Natasha Vita-More, and myself.

Here are the thoughts that I provided:

What is your highest hope for what will happen?

Powerful emerging and converging technologies, such as genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology, will be managed for optimum safety and for maximum benefit to all humanity, not just a privileged few.

What is your worst fear?

Continued escalation of wealth disparity combined with accelerated devastation of the biosphere from climate change will result in an overwhelming gap between the haves and the have-nots.

What is your best bet for what will actually occur?

Muddling through, with many terrible disasters - both natural and manmade - and strong opposition to change from entrenched special interests. Wars, famines, pandemics, and also heroic efforts to make the world better for all. Eventually, though, a place that will look a lot like today, just shinier in some places and dirtier in others.


What are your best bets, worst fears, and highest hopes?