This matters, or it should, to technoprogressives and to transhumanists. As I've said before, "emerging technologies-whether AI or nanotech or genetic engineering-do not emerge into nor from a vacuum. They are developed within a context of political reality, amidst the daily tussle over regulation, funding, and proper usage."

The question, then, is what sort of political reality will exist when all of these transformative technologies are emerging? Which nation, or nations, or even powerful non-state actors, will be the most friendly to their development and deployment, and which might be hostile to them?

It's impossible to know for sure, of course, but many signs seem to indicate that America is in a gradual state of decline as the world's preeminent superpower, while at the same time China is increasing in strength and influence. Will the two nations pass each other at some point in the near future, going in opposite directions? Or will other factors intervene that will cause America to resurge and China to stagnate or even implode?

China's growing problems with pollution, an aging workforce, and civil unrest are well known. But are they big enough keep the dragon down? And what about other rivals for superpowerhood, like India and Brazil? Could they gain enough in strength to be seen as near-equals to the US and China by mid-century?

There are at least three other possibilities we should consider:

• Neither China nor the US achieves or retains superpower status, while the EU, Russia, Brazil, India, Australia, Korea, Facebook, the Seasteading Alliance, and others become a thousand flowers loosely competing and collaborating in a true multi-polar world.
  
  
• At long last a strong form of global governance arises, a world federation that adjudicates disputes, enforces peace, and promotes equal rights and opportunities for all.
  
  
• The continuing trend of Moore's Law and the brilliant coding of AI researchers allows a superintelligent machine mind to emerge that takes its place at the head of the table, dwarfing all powers that came before.

So, which of these outcomes seems the most likely to you? We've just opened a new poll for our IEET readers to answer that question. Let us know what you think!