The Fermi Paradox—if there’s other intelligent life in the galaxy, given how long the galaxy’s been here, how come we haven’t seen any indication of it?—is an important puzzle for those of us who like to think ahead. Setting aside the mystical (we’re all that was created by a higher being) and fundamentally unprovable (we’re all living in a simulation), we’re left with two unpalatable options: we’re the first intelligent species to arise; or no civilization ever makes it long enough.
Nano Motors
by Mike TrederProducts put together by a nanofactory (see here for some fun examples) can be expected to be far more powerful and sophisticated than today’s best-built products.
Nick Bostrom: “Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing.”
by George DvorskyTranshumanist philosopher (and IEET Chair) Nick Bostrom desperately hopes that we never find signs of extraterrestrial life—advanced or otherwise. Why? Because he understands the Fermi Paradox.
Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing
by Nick BostromIf we are alone it may be evidence that we have sneaked past the huge hurdles in the way of any species becoming an intelligent star-faring civilization. Then again, we could still be extinguished at any moment.
The Past and Future of Evolution
I (J. Hughes) just returned from a wonderful conference on the history and future of the theory of evolution.
Roll +3 vs the Future
by Jamais CascioDungeons & Dragons made me a professional futurist.
Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats
by J. HughesAbstract: Popular discussion of utopian possibilities and apocalyptic risks from new technologies is sometimes dismissed as ungrounded millennial hysteria. In this essay I reflect on the various types of historic, pancultural millennialism. I then suggest how contemporary forms of secular techno-utopian and techno-apocalyptic discourse reflect these millennialist types and their characteristic biases to over- or under-estimate catastrophic risks, and adopt fatalistic or inappropriate stances toward risk reduction. Then I suggest that awareness of these characteristic millennialist cognitive biases help us separate grounded assessments of catastrophic risks from their attendant psycho-cultural baggage. By carefully parsing our hopes and fears about the future from the characteristic dysfunctions of millennialism we can tap millennialism’s energy without being led astray by it. (Download the PDF)
Linda’s Review of Dyson in Nature Biotechnology
Congrats to IEET’s Linda MacDonald Glenn for getting a review of Freeman Dyson’s latest book, A Many-Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe, in Nature Biotechnology.
The Big Picture: Resource Collapse
by Jamais CascioTruism #1: Human society’s continued existence depends on the sustained flows of a variety of natural resources.
Truism #2: What that set of natural resources comprises can change over time.
Poll: Will (post)humans colonize the galaxy?
A majority of you think yes. Of the 320 respondents to the poll, almost 60% said that (post)human colonization of the galaxy was likely. One if five thought the prospects of galactic colonization were dim because of vast distances. One in six thought the prospects bad because of x-risks to the future of human civilization.
Super-Empowered Hopeful Individuals
by Jamais CascioMost discussions of the benefits of technologies like molecular manufacturing tend to focus either on broad social advances (engineered by helpful governments, NGOs, or businesses) or individual desires that transformative technologies may be able to satisfy. These are surely useful ways of thinking about a nanotech-enabled world. But what if this model misses another category, one that may be less noticeable precisely because we pay so much attention to its opposite?
It’s the Business of the Future to be Dangerous
by Jamais CascioWhat am I? What do you call someone who tries to engage the public in a conversation about plausible futures, and ways we could end up with a better world?
Dreamers of a Better Future, Unite!
by Athena AndreadisViews of space travel have grown increasingly pessimistic in the last decade.
The Future of Marriage
by Edward MillerThe institution of marriage in Western society is both a result of human nature and at odds with it.
The Future of Humanity
by Nick BostromAbstract The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The Big Future
by Jamais CascioYou don’t have to believe in incipient singularities to recognize that 2028—just twenty years from now—will bear very little resemblance to 2008.
Emerging Economies and U.S. Hegemony
by Mike TrederDoes the decline of U.S. geopolitical hegemony make multilateral global governance less likely or more likely?
Poll: When we can change sexual orientation….
Wow. I did not expect this result. Only 17% of you think control over sexual orientation will result in Western societies becoming straighter.
From Future Shock to Future Fatigue
by Dale CarricoSome futurists are nervous about the prevalence of fictional narratives at the heart of an awful lot of bioethics discussion. After all, Frankenstein, the golem, designer super-babies, clone armies, genetically superhumanized abilities, genetically subhumanized slaves, human-animal hybrids and so on don’t actually exist despite their frequent appearances in discussions influencing actual health policies impacting people.
Future Problem Solver Presentations on Neurotechnology
On January 9th I helped the Connecticut Future Problem Solvers organize a morning seminar for more than 200 students, grades 5-12, and their teachers on neurotechnology.
Overcoming Gender
by George DvorskyYour gender is a constraint. This is an inalienable truism, regardless of whether you’re a man or a woman.
De-Immanentize the Eschaton?
by Vladimir De ThezierSince I ended my technoprogressive manifesto with a dire warning about “barbarians within our midst”, I’ve been asked by a few of my readers to more clearly identify the threat to democracy I am so concerned about. Two words: Christian fascism.
Origins and Theory of the World Transhumanist Association
by NoneAndres Lomena recently conducted an interview for the Spanish magazine Cronopis with the Chair of the IEET’s Board of directors Nick Bostrom, as well as with IEET friend David Pearce, about their co-founding of the World Transhumanist Association and related topics. They have kindly allowed us to reprint the interview here.
CRN’s Nanotechnology Scenarios Project
by Mike TrederThe Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, under the direction of Mike Treder and Jamais Cascio, worked with two dozen technology futurists to develop eight scenarios imagining the future of nanotechnology.
IEET ally CRN releases Nanotechnology Scenario Series
IEET Fellow Mike Treder directs the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology which - with the assistance of IEET Fellow Jamais Cascio, who also serves as CRN’s Director of Impacts Analysis - has released eight scenarios for the future development of nanotechnology reflecting a collective scenario process of two dozen people.
Promoting BioFuturist Policy Brainstorming Among the Young
by J. HughesWhen I was twelve my Dad gave me a subscription to The Futurist. Mainstream futurology kind of paled for me next to the science fiction I was reading, but at least I knew early on that there were people trying to anticipate and prepare for a radically different future. Imagine my surprise thirty five years later, after a decade of bio-futurist work, to discover that in 1974, one year after I started reading The Futurist, a program for junior futurists was started which today includes more than 250,000 kids in grades 4-12 worldwide.
In Defense of Superlativity
by Giulio PriscoMany transhumanist ideas are products of fertile and creative imaginations. Some people would add “unhampered by the normal constraints of scientific and philosophical discipline”. Is that so? My answer: NO, or at least not necessarily.
Letter to Utopia, v1.0
by Andy MiahA Reply to ‘Letter from Utopia’ (Nick Bostrom, 2007)
Bostrom, Corwin in BBC4’s Visions of the Future
Visions of the Future, the BBC special hosted by physicist Michio Kaku will air as a three-part series starting on 5 November, 2007. Nick Bostrom and Anne Corwin from the IEET are part of the series, as are many other futurist luminaries such as Ray Kurzweil, Joel Garreau, Jaron Lanier, Paul Saffo and Rodney Brooks.
A Superlative Schema of Critiques of Transcendentalized Technology
by Dale CarricoBelieving that our technology will become, or make us, god-like is fundamentally undemocratic. We need to remain critical of this transcendentalizing tendency in techno-utopian discourse in order to work towards real liberatory uses of technology.
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