Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies


The IEET is a 501(c)3 non-profit, tax-exempt organization registered in the State of Connecticut in the United States. Please give as you are able, and help support our work for a brighter future.


Search the IEET
Subscribe and Contribute to:


Technoprogressive? BioConservative? Huh?
Quick overview of biopolitical points of view




whats new at ieet

Is Robust Moral Realism a kind of Religious Belief?

InsurTech 2016

“Parenting” Looks Nothing Like Evolutionary Caregiving

How to Make Intelligent Robots That Understand the World

Neo - Official Teaser Trailer

Born Poor, Stay Poor: The Silent Caste System of America


ieet books

Philosophical Ethics: Theory and Practice
Author
John G Messerly


comments

instamatic on 'Born Poor, Stay Poor: The Silent Caste System of America' (Sep 26, 2016)

Joseph Ratliff on 'Born Poor, Stay Poor: The Silent Caste System of America' (Sep 24, 2016)

rsbakker on 'Competitive Cognitive Artifacts and the Demise of Humanity: A Philosophical Analysis' (Sep 24, 2016)

Nicholsp03 on 'The dark side of the Simulation Argument' (Sep 24, 2016)

DavidJKelley on 'Critical Nature of Emotions in Artificial General Intelligence' (Sep 23, 2016)

rms on 'A Free Education for all the World’s People: Why is this Not yet a Thing?' (Sep 23, 2016)

kallumjm on 'Piracetam - is it the smartest of the smart drugs?' (Sep 21, 2016)







Subscribe to IEET News Lists

Daily News Feed

Longevity Dividend List

Catastrophic Risks List

Biopolitics of Popular Culture List

Technoprogressive List

Trans-Spirit List



JET

Enframing the Flesh: Heidegger, Transhumanism, and the Body as “Standing Reserve”

Moral Enhancement and Political Realism

Intelligent Technologies and Lost Life

Hottest Articles of the Last Month


BREXIT – some historical perspective
Aug 30, 2016
(5002) Hits
(2) Comments

Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari
Sep 1, 2016
(4139) Hits
(0) Comments

A Free Education for all the World’s People: Why is this Not yet a Thing?
Sep 20, 2016
(3965) Hits
(2) Comments

Defining the Blockchain Economy: What is Decentralized Finance?
Sep 17, 2016
(3448) Hits
(0) Comments



IEET > Security > Cyber > Resilience > SciTech > Vision > Futurism > Fellows > Jamais Cascio

Print Email permalink (0) Comments (4841) Hits •  subscribe Share on facebook Stumble This submit to reddit submit to digg


Singularity Scenarios


Jamais Cascio
By Jamais Cascio
Fast Company

Posted: Oct 13, 2009

If we do have something we can describe as a Singularity, what then?

My talk last weekend at the New York Future Salon explored the likelihood and the implications of the transformative event known as the “Singularity.” I tend to part ways with many Singularity enthusiasts over two small issues: what comes before a Singularity, and what comes after.

In terms of what comes before, I’m generally in the camp that machine-substrate intelligence is very likely possible, but is probably a much more complex problem than some of the more enthusiastic Singularitarians would have us think. We currently have a single model of a mind emerging from a physical structure—the human brain—and (as noted by one of the 2009 Singularity Summit speakers, David Chalmers) we’re not even sure how that happens. Add to that issues around learning, around complexity, around the very definition of intelligence, and you have the potential for a situation where—even if there are no physical laws preventing the emergence of artificial general intelligence—“real” AI remains the computer science version of nuclear fusion: perpetually just a couple of decades away (with plenty of dead-ends and showy hoaxes along the way).

I’ve noted elsewhere that I suspect that “a stand-alone artificial mind will be more a tool of narrow utility than something especially apocalyptic.” Part of the reason is the difficulty, but another part is the near-certainty that the technologies of human intelligence augmentation will continue apace. The technologies that may be dead-ends for efforts to construct a self-aware artificial mind could easily be of great value as non-conscious assistants to human minds.

The notion that creating “real” AI may turn out to be extraordinarily difficult, and the idea that human intelligence augmentation could itself turn out to be a more promising line of research doesn’t get a lot of push-back from the more thoughtful Singularity proponents I’ve encountered. After all, both have been demonstrably true so far. A tougher sticking point, however, comes when I explore what could come afterwards.

If greater-than-human artificial intelligence emerges out of aggressively competitive projects, each seeking to be first, and is put to use without much thought to what might happen next, then the traditional Singularity scenario seems pretty likely. But that’s not the only one:

Read more about the scenarios.


Jamais Cascio is a Senior Fellow of the IEET, and a professional futurist. He writes the popular blog Open the Future.
Print Email permalink (0) Comments (4842) Hits •  subscribe Share on facebook Stumble This submit to reddit submit to digg


COMMENTS


YOUR COMMENT (IEET's comment policy)

Login or Register to post a comment.

Next entry: The Future of Money

Previous entry: Singularity Summit Coverage - Day 2

HOME | ABOUT | FELLOWS | STAFF | EVENTS | SUPPORT  | CONTACT US
SECURING THE FUTURE | LONGER HEALTHIER LIFE | RIGHTS OF THE PERSON | ENVISIONING THE FUTURE
CYBORG BUDDHA PROJECT | AFRICAN FUTURES PROJECT | JOURNAL OF EVOLUTION AND TECHNOLOGY

RSSIEET Blog | email list | newsletter |
The IEET is a 501(c)3 non-profit, tax-exempt organization registered in the State of Connecticut in the United States.

East Coast Contact: Executive Director, Dr. James J. Hughes,
56 Daleville School Rd., Willington CT 06279 USA 
Email: director @ ieet.org     phone: 860-428-1837

West Coast Contact: Managing Director, Hank Pellissier
425 Moraga Avenue, Piedmont, CA 94611
Email: hank @ ieet.org