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Dr. J. chats with University of Wisconsin historian Alfred McCoy, author of Policing America’s Empire: The United States, the Philippines, and the Rise of the Surveillance State, convener of the global “Empires in Transition†project, and author of the recent speculative essay “Four Scenarios For The Coming Collapse of The American Empire.” The final work of the Empires in Transition project will be published in 2011 as Endless Empire: Europe’s Eclipse, America’s Ascent, and the Decline of U.S. Global Power. Part 2 of 2.
This is what John Derbyshire writes about the "Fulda Gap" (from circa 2008-' 09):
"But for all the bullying bluster of conservative talk-show hosts, their essential attitude is one of apology and submission—the dreary old conservative cringe. Their underlying metaphysic is the same as the liberals’: infinite human potential—Yes, we can!—if only we get society right. To the Left, getting society right involves shoveling us around like truckloads of concrete; to the Right, it means banging on about responsibility, God, and tax cuts while deficits balloon, Congress extrudes yet another social-engineering fiasco, and our armies guard the Fulda Gap."
Interesting that he should mention Britain and how well they managed their decline. I'd bet my (rapidly depreciating) bottom dollar that Perfidious Albion is lurking in the shadows somewhere helping out. The Brits have recently beefed up a series of spy satellites (which system they named Skynet, isn't that fun?) and bankruptcy be damned - to look over our would-be eastern overlords. If I were Chinese I wouldn't be too sure this century's great game is game set and match just yet.
Then there are other variables to consider: possible fusion breakthroughs (Yes I know about the old joke but most scientists are still sure it will happen eventually) upcoming reprap, robotic and automation developments and of course our old friend the singularity. History never quite unwinds the same way.
And of course while the US and China are doing their best to knock seven bells out of each other there's always the comical possibility that Mother Nature the old back-street abortionist, will warm/chill the place up and remove us from the scene completely. Intelligent life on other worlds? Let me know if we find any here first.
"I were Chinese I wouldn't be too sure this century's great game is game set and match just yet."
The Chinese at this time still need our grain, right?-- agriculture may not be as hi-tech & sexy as IT, but we can't (as of yet) eat silicon. Asians may be the smartest people, but feeding billions of them on more than merely rice is a tough haul.
'Asians may be the smartest people, but feeding billions of them on more than merely rice is a tough haul'.
Right, Postfuturist and that isn't the half of it. China has, at this moment anywhere between 100 and 200 million (we're talking half the population of the US folks) wandering China far from their villages, looking for opportunities in the cities (let me just remark, I say this in no sense of triumphalism. My own personal situation isn't that great right now owing to the worldwide economic crisis and my heart goes out to desperate people all over the world). This is, to put it mildly, a major worry for the powers that be in Beijing.
There are the pollution problems and I've no doubt the Chinese are well aware of the environmental sword of Damocles hanging over all our heads. And BTW even after all the progress of the last twenty years China per capita is as rich as Ecuador (I'm just quoting the figures folks, believe me I wish we had world-wide prosperity, I could do with it for one). When we see the progress in Shanghai and other cities remember the 7-800 million peasants still left in ghastly poverty in the inland provinces.
China also is circled by something like a dozen other countries that are nervously watching its rise. One of those countries is India which at last is beginning to catch up with China. Another is Japan (say no more), another is Vietnam (also rising). China even has problems with its few allies (North Korea, the ally from hell), Myanmar (economy dead in the water and anyway the Indians are also getting involved there). Of course there is Pakistan (if the Muslims take over there they may may be friction over certain areas of China with large numbers of Muslims). Then there's those Russian Chappies who want to hold on to Siberia...
I don't say that it's impossible that China can't manage all this but pretty difficult huh? All it would take is for the US (even in a weakened state) Europe, India and Japan to make a strategic alliance (and who knows what's happening behind the scenes) to cut China's influence.
One dark horse is the overseas Chinese trade links. Will they support the traditional overbearing political system in China? Or will they remember the (admittedly flawed, but no one's perfect) political systems they came to over the centuries that enabled many of them to prosper? For them I think it's 'make your mind up' time.
And is it really in China's interest to have a bankrupt nuclear armed America with its gun toting Beck/Limbaugh-watching Christian folks on the rampage? I don't know about the Chinese but by God the possibility scares me:D (And if the Americans don't know how to counter Chinese Cyberwar by 2025 (really?) I'm sure the Brits can always help them out).
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