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Uncertainty About Alien Threats
Posted: May 26, 2010
In a recently concluded reader poll, more than 40% of respondents said we don’t have enough information to know whether space aliens potentially could pose a threat to Earth.
With a nod to the Fermi Paradox, 20% said if anyone was going to molest us, they should have been here by now.
In contrast, almost one in five of our poll respondents apparently believe that aliens are already here. And another 8% are concerned that there could be real danger in announcing our presence to the Universe.
Are space aliens a threat to Earth?
This poll was conducted in response to an episode of Stephen Hawking’s Discovery Channel program in which he warned that advanced extraterrestrial species likely would pose a serious threat to human civilization. Two articles we posted on our site, one from IEET Board Member George Dvorsky, and the other from IEET Fellow David Brin, generated a large amount of discussion on the topic.
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Bah, someone is FAR likelier to choke to death at a restaurant than be harmed by an ET.
So... • Somewhere in the Milky Way, of course. • May 26, 2010
You know, I read the questions after reading the article but without looking again at the polling results while doing so; and, answer A is really the least correct (“Other” notwithstanding). B, C, and E are all correct allowing that B and C <i>could</i> be a fact, but who knows <u>at this point</u> (maybe “they” did bother us a long time ago, but I have difficulty agreeing that it’s impossible to know). Of course we’d be foolish, or rather naive- as a species, to just overtly say, “Sure, whatever to whomever, come on in”- as if we would have a choice- I mean, look at ourselves. We’d cream the hell out of the DPRK if any significant number of them came out to say hi or otherwise. And would we be wrong? Well, would they think so 50 years later? How do we feel on a daily basis? Wanting more, maybe. At least they’d be on par with the human condition. But, why not any other group’s solution thus far for that matter. But that’s my point actually. Individually, on Earth- that’s what it is, that’s what we are- definitively as a species: individual. So far anyway. Psychologists would love to carry the point from here (I’d love to really <b>know</b> if there was a moment, an event, that shored our- as a species- Ego , clapped it right out into our daily day, that after it happed, we couldn’t remember any other time, like Herodotus and the Birth of History). Just a monumental change in the fabric of perception, for everyone- and transparently, mostly. But really, I think, it’s perception and to that, some would say “of course”, and to others also not perception- spiritually. Life, it’s always everywhere and not exactly anywhere. On Earth or seaming from a star. “If you try to find it in a particle, you will become lost.” So I heard. Aliens! Ha! Nothing’s ever “alone”. Although I’d hate anyone to test my resolve on that point…
A given person is much more likely to be struck by lightning in the dead of winter than be attacked by aliens provoked by SETI. An intellectual (such as Hawking)‘s illusions are merely larger in scale than a lowbrow’s: Tin Hatte thinks the CIA might send radio transmissions through his dental fillings; Stephen Hawking thinks ETs might attack the Earth in a spaceship. Which of the two is more foolish?
I think it presumtive anyone belives we can predict the motives and behavior of ET when we can’t even do it with ourselves. I can’t think of many times when we humans had contact with others on this planet that we didn’t act in a hostile manner and use our superior weapons againt those we “contacted”. Seems to me the only chance we won’t be conqured is if they are different from us.
The Fermi Paradox is silly and disproven by us. We are not someplace else because we don’t exist or don’t want to go, we are not someplace else because we can’t get there. I am shocked a man of Fermi’s stature even thought this let alone said it. But, Tesla said nothing will ever come of nucular power.
“Seems to me the only chance we won’t be conqured is if they are different from us.” The only threat is to the pocketbook of someone who buys Hawking’s book or DVD on this subject.
Hi Postfuturist,
I don’t understand why you seem to be so negitive to Mr. Hawking. There is no question he is brilliant and certainally entitled to his opinion. Not to mention he is qualified in the field of which he holds the opinion. This doesn’t mean he is correct but even if he isn’t that doesn’t mean you can’t learn something from what he says. Or being entertained is positive as well. Mr. Hawking must makle a living like anyone else and he is doing all he can with his horrible disability. Most of the rest of us don’t have to deal with anything close to what he has. My heart goes out to him and all of the severely disabled. Thanks Dennis McKee
Remember Murphy’s law. “If it can happen it will”
“Not to mention he is qualified in the field of which he holds the opinion.” Dennis, are you suggesting Stephen Hawking is an expert on extraterrestrial aliens? But you correctly write, “Mr. Hawking must making a living like anyone else”; that is really what this is all about, isn’t it? About subliminally manipulating the gullible, and calling it “the marketplace of ideas”. Or perhaps more accurately: the marketplace of snake oil.
... since when have serious academics had the right to do Close Encounters Of The Fluffy Sensationalistic Kind on TV?
I’m not suggesting Mr. Hawking is an expert on ET. I don’t even know what that would take. I can;t speak for anyone but my self and i’m using the law of mathmatical probibility, 50 years of study and examination of cases. I think given the amount of stars in the universe and the duplication of the “stuff"we are made of it likely life exists elsewhere. The other relavant question is are they coming here? If they don’t do it publicly the only way to make an educated guess at that question is study the cases. It’s iust my view there are cases that idicate that is true. However I’m no expert either so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt as I have been wrong before. Lots of times. I think it is a serious question of sciense as to the existance of life else where and when contact with them could be argued as the most significant incident of human history. I think you are putting the question of life elsewhere in a catagory with things like ESP, and other supernatural silliness when it doesn’t belong there. As to serious academics having a view on anything. I am a Marine Corps Viet Nam vet and I fought so all of us can have an opinion on anything we choose as well as the right to give it. He has the same rights as you and I do. You may well believe that this is snake oil coming from Hawking but I disagree as to what your definition of snake oil is. And sure its about making a living just as you do when you work only he is far more limited than you and I.
Thanks Dennis McKee
I’m sorry I ment to say mr. Hawking is an expert on physics not et. I’m not so sure that people that believe in the existance of life and it coming here could be defined as gullible. I belong to MENSA and a lot of us think the possibility of this being true is high. It took me 30 years to come down on the side of likely. Remember of the millions of reports every year only one must be true to establish the premise. Thanks Dennis
if Hawking wants to entertain the public, that is permissible—as you correctly wrote, “Mr. Hawking must making a living like anyone else”. However Hawking is a scientist who in this case worked backwards; Hawking postulated ETs provoked by humans might attack them. Using scientific methodology Hawking would work forwards, presenting evidence (not statistical probability) of ETs. Then he would form a hypothesis: that ETs if provoked by human broadcasts might attack. And then on from there.
Speculation has been part of sciense since the beginning of time. Someone comes up with Evalution as an idea speculation and time either proves or disproves it as science is self correcting. You expect someone to present evidence so what has been presented on the subject you do not consider evidence. I’m on your side my friend as I beleive extroidinary claims demand extroidinary evidence. But it is the individual’s call on what satisfys them. To me to say that et is coming here is one extroidinary claim. No less extroidinary is that a person walked amoung us that was a God. I’m not saying that isn’t true however the evidence for that is far less than for et’s coming here yet many believe it to be true. I’m sure Mr. Hawking is aware everyone does not accept his conclusion and you must remember he said might attack. I have no idea if they would or not but it is reasonable speculation. I don’t think a reasonable person would challange them with their level of ability. I find most people to be facinated as to ET being real. As well one cannot present proof if what they have is questionable to some. Many times truth is in the eye of the beholder so lots of times it is perception. And perception is far more important to the person as they act on it when its not necessarly the truth. DNA was predicted in the 1930’s because it “had to be there” and it was. Scientists are just like the rest of us and have the same flaws. My desire is always the same to learn and speak the truth however it doesn’t always work that way because I make mistakes. Remember there are only 2 perfect people Jesus and my ex mother in law. Everyone else makes mistakes. In my life twice while I was in the military I had a close encounter. I was near thousands of others that saw the same thing I did. They did not prove to me there was et only that very strage craft were in our skys. So I am sure something is out there I just have no idea what it is. Thank Dennis
Speculation cuts both ways. I can produce a TV presentation theorizing that Hawking contacted ETs and they agreed if Hawking did a TV special on space aliens, they would refrain from appearing or attacking humans—because if ETs appear then why would TV viewers need Hawking’s speculation? the aliens were rewarded with precious metals and shares in Hawking Enterprises.
Hi Postfuturist, Getting out there pretty good my friend. But certainally you could do that although if it would be anything other than entertainment seems it wouldn’t be very interesting. But you are correct we would no longer need anyones speculation if it becomes established fact. I find Hawings time travel possibilities more interesting than his ET speculation as he is qualifed to give his opinion on that. I don’t know how familiar you are with the subject but for years several astronots have claimed the aliens have stated we are no longer permitted to go to the moon or Mars either one. I have no idea if thats true or not but I consider astronts creditable and would at least consider what hey say. I was around when Armstrong landed on the moon and i remember what the government said before we landed and they had all kinds of plans for the moon to be a base and a steping stone for the universe. That never happened. Why? Is it true we were warned??? I have not the slighest idea if that is true or not. Maybe they threatened us because they don’t want to hear anything from Hawking??? Dennis
I don’t deny that space aliens exist, only that the threat from ETs to a given individual is less than being hit by a meteorite. However if Hawking’s TV deal, his DVDs, etc, are perceived as entertainment then what is the harm? Or take conspiracy theory; the JFK assassination book & film industry (hundreds of titles) is similar: no conclusive evidence of who assassinated JFK or why, but the readers learn something in the course of reading and viewing endless tinhat material. Whether or not what the consumers learn is worth the price of the material—plus the time involved reading or viewing it—is an open question.
Dennis, this is the latest conspiracy theory: Hawking gets 33 percent of the book & DVD deal; astronauts get 33 percent; ETs get 33 percent. The remaining one percent goes to the ET Victims’ Compensation Fund, for possible compensation of anyone who might be harmed by a space alien dissatisfied with his share of the 33 percent.
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